Find Me a 100 Winner: Bets advised for all three main tour events

Golfer Ian Poulter
Ian Poulter has a good record at this course and in this event

Paul Krishnamurty provides his best bet at 99-1 or better in each of this week's three events on the main tours, plus some alternatives...

"Twice a WGC winner, Poulter has finished top-ten in four of the last seven, including the last two renewals of this and is well capable of making it three in a row."

There's a feast of golf betting opportunities this week, with three events on the main tours. The WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational is the main attraction but the other two events are probably more fertile territory for outsiders. I'm recommending one selection, along with several alternatives, in each.

First to Forest of Arden, which returns to the European Tour after 15 years with the Hero Open. Much has changed in the game since but as I recall, hitting fairways and greens was essential around this tree-lined layout, whereas power off the tee seemed largely irrelevant. Short, straight hitters Peter O'Malley and Greg Owen won. Soren Hansen twice finished top-five.

Steve Rawlings analyses the event in greater detail here and I strongly concur with his conclusion that greens in regulation is the key metric.

Karlberg could be creeping back to form

Back Rikard Karlberg 1u @ 199/1200.0
Place order to lay 10u @ 14/115.0

Back Rikard Karlberg for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 9/110.0

There was a correlation between Forest of Arden and Wentworth, where the selection has previously finished runner-up in the elite BMW PGA Championship. Looking back through Karlberg's career, the Swede has record numerous good results at this level during mid to late summer, including last year.

Karlberg has eased himself back after the break with three solid, unspectacular results - 34th, 24th and 26th. Not far off, then, and his greens in regulation stats improved markedly over the weekend at Close House, hitting 72% on both Saturday and Sunday.

Adrian Otaegui also came in for consideration at 199/1200.0. At his best that would be a huge price and, although he had been out of form earlier, last week's return included some promise. Wil Besseling - third in the Austrian Open and first among these for gir over the last year - was also shortlisted at 179/1180.0.

Poulter poised for another strong WGC

As with majors, WGC events have become something of a graveyard for outsider backers in recent years. The market leaders at Southwind are no less formidable but at least on this course, short-hitters have a chance.

As Steve explains in his preview, this used to be a place where outsiders and veterans thrived. It is a track where resilience and a good short game to save pars is essential.

Back Ian Poulter 0.5u @ 209/1210.0
Back Ian Poulter for a Top 10 Finish 1.5u @ 15/28.4

One man who ticks all those boxes, and has the pedigree for an event of this stature, is Ian Poulter. He's taken well to Southwind in the past, finishing top-eight on two of his last three visits. Form since the restart is solid too, including fifth in the Workday Open and 14th at The Heritage.

Twice a WGC winner, he's finished top-ten in four of the last seven, including the last two renewals of this. In a reduced field including several no-hopers, he's well capable of making it three in a row.

Van Rooyen interesting on debut

First reserve here is Erik Van Rooyen at 299/1300.0. The South African is a top prospect and keeps standing up in big events, whether majors or WGCs. As Dave Tindall points out in his preview, he'll appreciate the Zoysia fairways. Danny Willett 189/1190.0 was another considered, given good form and big event pedigree.

This week's best hope of finding an outsider winner is the Barracuda Championship. Check out Steve's preview for the full, detailed lowdown on this unique event, for which the scoring is modified stableford points system.

Roach's altitude form is eyecatching

In short, this is all about attacking golf, making stacks of birdies and eagles. Outsiders always contend and often win. The venue has switched thirty miles across the border to California but remains in the desert and at altitude.

Back Wes Roach 1u @ 149/1150.0
Place order to lay 10u @ 9/110.0

Back Wes Roach for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 9/110.0

Therefore, I reckon past Barracuda form is our best guide. Wes Roach played well there when a lesser player than today, finishing top-21 twice in 2014 and 2016. More notable is his record at El Bosque, home to the Mexico Championship on the Kornferry Tour. Played at altitude, he won and finish second there.

Roach ranks seventh for eagles among these over the past year and his best results tend to come in low scoring affairs - witness five top-11 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage, Bermuda Championship, John Deere Open and Canadian Open.

First reserve here is Brandon Hagy at 139/1140.0. This Californian bomber has a decent birdie average of 3.93 per round, fair numbers in stronger fields, and recorded a top-20 in the Barracuda. Another to consider is Joseph Bramlett at 119/1120.0, who was enjoying a good season on both tours until very recently. Seamus Power 139/1140.0 ranks first for birdies and fourth for eagles among these.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty


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2019: +70.5 units

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