World Cup Day 29 Tipsheet: Best bets and predictions for the quarter-final clash between Spain and Belgium

Spain v Belgium - Back the Spanish

Click here for Spain v Belgium odds
Friday, 20:00
Live on BBC

Spain enter the quarters as second favourites to win the World Cup at 7/24.50. 

Beat Belgium on Friday and they'll most likely take on current 15/82.88 favourites France in a mouth-watering semi-final before playing one of 4/15.00 Argentina, 9/25.50 England, 14/115.00 Norway or 33/134.00 Switzerland in the final. 

As the prices suggest, Les Bleus are the side to beat, but I can't help but feel La Roja have gone slightly under the radar. 

In true World Cup champion style, they got off to a slow start after a stalemate with minnows Cape Verde - although that result has aged pretty well. 

Luis de la Fuente's side went on to win the next four games and haven't conceded a goal all tournament. 

That defensive record is no fluke either, as the Spanish have shipped a measly average expected-goals-against (xGA) of 0.3 per match. Portugal's tally of 0.63 xG in the round of 16 was the highest Spain have shipped in a single game as well. 

Hardly surprising really because if you don't give the opposition the ball, they can't score. And Spain don't give the ball away, averaging 65.6% possession (most of any side left in the WC).

At the prices available, backing Spain to win and under 4.5 goals appeals at 10/111.91. It's clicked in all of Spain's last four games. 

Yamal coming back to full fitness

It is also worth noting that the fitness of Spain's dynamic wingers, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, the stars of Euro 2024, is also improving.

The latter has played himself up to speed and expected to start on the right flank here. N. Williams has only played 46 minutes all tournament, so will likely remain on the bench for this one.

Belgium's luck to run out?

Belgium boss Rudi Garcia deserves some credit for his side's fortune in the knock-out stages. 

They were on the brink of elimination against Senegal, two goals down before the hour mark so he subbed Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku. 

The Red Devils left it late but goals in the 86th and 89th minute took them to extra time where a last-gasp Youri Tielemans penalty nicked it. 

In the round of 16, Garcia left out De Bruyne and Doku from the off, put Dodi Lukebakio on the right, Nicolas Raskin in midfield and moved Youri Tielemans to the 10. 

It worked as Belgium beat the co-hosts USA 4-1. 

On the whole though, their campaign has fluctuated from lucky to lacklustre. 

They started off with two draws against Egypt and Iran. It meant they needed to beat New Zealand (lowest ranked nation at WC) to top the group, they won 5-1 but two goals came after the 85th minute. 

Then, in the round of 32, Senegal hit the woodwork twice before opening the scoring, won the xG battle 3.58 - 1.74 and their keeper was at fault for the late equaliser. 

Even the 4-1 win over the USA, Belgium's last two goals were down to individual errors. 

So, although Garcia might be able to conjure a tactical plan to make this game with Spain more competitive then their match odds of 9/25.50 suggest, it's hard to see them making it to the semis. 

The final nail in the coffin? Midfield lynchpin Andre Onana suffered a tournament-ending injury in the last round, which is a huge blow ahead of this clash.

Corner the value

Spain have had at least six corners in all their games this summer, with tallies of 7-9-6-6-11 posted.

Expecting them to dominate possession, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them rack up a similar tally here and at 10/111.91 backing them to have over 5.5 corners appeals.

Belgium conceded seven when they were on the ropes against Egypt and five against New Zealand. 

Jimmy's Acca - Back a Spain v Belgium treble at 5/16.00

With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or bet builders at the World Cup it's worth a punt on Spain's higher corner lines and my other best bet here.

Combining Spain to win, under 4.5 goals and Spain to have over 6.5 corners appeals at [4.71/1].

Now read more World Cup tips here!