Despite taking a sixth minute lead, Portugal 1/51.20 were poor against DR Congo in their 1-1 draw. They managed just seven shots and generated just 0.65 expected goals despite having 75% of possession.
Is Cristiano Ronaldo a problem? He had just 25 touches in the match, fewer than goalkeeper Diogo Costa, suggesting a more mobile forward is required to help unlock a low-block defence. However, Roberto Martinez continues to defend his selection, so it's unlikely he will leave out the star man.
Uzbekistan were competitive in their 3-1 defeat to Colombia up until they conceded the opening goal in the 40th minute, only conceding two shots in the previous 39 minutes whilst offering nothing going forward with zero shots as they prioritised defence first.
Portugal will dominate but, if Uzbekistan can stand strong at least until half-time, we could get a really good run for our money by backing a draw at half-time. After the break, class, fitness and experience will tell with Portugal claiming the win.
Ghana were woeful despite beating Panama in their opening game. They were 11/82.38 favourites but played nothing like it. They had just 38% possession and just seven shots, burgling a win with a counter-attack in the 95th minute.
England 1/51.20, on the other hand, were excellent against Croatia in their 4-2 win, having 22 shots and creating 3.20 xG. They can solidify top spot by beating Ghana by a few goals.
Thomas Tuchel's men have scored 26 goals in his nine competitive games in charge (2.89 per-game) so the question is - in what form will an England win come? England -1 handicap only pays 3/51.60 so backing England to win and Over 2.5 goals at 7/101.70 is the way to go which also gets any Ghana consolation goals on our side.
Round two fixtures tend to see an increase in goals and, after round one, the World Cup is already averaging 3.13 goals per-game.
Back England to win and Over 2.5 goals
Croatia at 1/21.50 are overpriced. Panama's record at World Cups reads P4 W0 D0 L4 F2 A12 -10. At the 2024 Copa America, against sides that are roughly equal to Croatia in terms of ability, Panama's opponents were prices as follows: Colombia 1/31.33, USA 2/51.40, Uruguay 1/31.33. So Croatia's odds offer value here.
As mentiond, Croatia lost their first game to England but losing to the side that are third favourites for the World Cup is no disgrace. Let's remember, 2018 runners-up and 2022 third place winners Croatia come here having won seven of their last nine competitive matches.
At World Cups, manager Zlatko Dalić has won 10 of his 15 matches (67%). So the bet here is to back Croatia -1.0 on the Asian Handicap on the Betfair Exchange. If they win by just one goal we get our money back, but if they win by two or more goals the bet is a winner.
Back Croatia -1.0 Asian Handicap
Colombia are 1/21.50 but it might not be as easy for them as those odds suggest against a stubborn DR Congo side. Despite only having 25% possession against Portugal, they managed to restrict the Selecao to zero big chances.
Congo's defensive quality shouldn't come as a surprise, having only conceded three goals in four competitive games in the last 12 months against the likes of Algeria, Senegal, Nigeria and Cameroon.
Colombia, however, have won eight of their last 11 games and, with the likes of Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez, should have enough to pick up a narrow victory.
They monopolised possession against Uzbekistan with 61%, had 15 shots and generated 1.61 xG including four big chances. Backing them to win and Under 3.5 goals increases their odds from 1/21.50 to 10/111.91 and means we have the following scores of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 to cheer on.
Back Colombia to win and Under 3.5 goals
With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or bet builders at the World Cup let's back my best bets in a treble.
Back England and Over 2.5 goals, Croatia -1 and Colombia and Under 3.5 Goals