Spain to have too much control for Austria
Click here for Spain v Austria odds
Thursday 2 July, 20:00 kick-off
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Live on BBC One
Spain remain among the tournament favourites but they've not really enhanced their reputation so far, with a rather humiliating 0-0 with Capde Verde followed by an expected win over Saudi Arabia and then a scrappy 1-0 against Uruguay.
And they're huge favourites again at 3/101.30 but Austria have the ability to make it another tough grind for the European champions, even as massive 10/111.00 underdogs in the match.
The Austrians somehow made it through after that pulsating end to their 3-3 draw with Algeria in the final game - if it was a pre-planned carve-up then full marks for the drama of the script writing with two goals in stoppage time!
Ralph Rangnick is a skilled tactician but his plans went out the window with that one. Here the plan will simply be to frustrate and try and pinch something on the break or with set pieces - in a similar gameplan to Uruguay who could've easily got something from a stinker of a game.
Spain mustered just six shots on goal and only one on target - the winning goal as it turned out - despite having 67% possession so that lack of cutting edge is a worry. With just five goals scored (including one own goal) from 5.3 shots on target per game and a 5.3 xG from the fixtures they had is not great.
And with the Spanish not winning a knockout game since they became world champions in 2010, losing to both Russia and Morocco on penalties after disappointing draws, the longer this goes on the more the nerves will kick in.
The draw here is 4/15.00 and with four of Spain's last nine World Cup knockout games going to pens, either team to win a shootout at 9/110.00 could be a shout for that trend to continue.
The problem for Austria though is their own attacking struggles. They scored with every shot on target against Algeria but that's almost impossible to replicate, and besides they've had just eight in three games, just one against Argentina, and generated 3.7 xG in the tournament.
Against a Spanish defence yet to concede a goal, with only 0.5 xG allowed, that's just not going to cut the mustard - so one goal could well win this and Spain look the only one of the two sides capable of scoring it. Spain won all four of their 2010 knockout games 1-0, including the final, and this team only really looks capable of winning the same way.
A win to nil is 10/111.91 but we'll go for something a little better with just a low-scoring Spanish victory on the cards - once they get ahead they're more than happy to just see the game out.
Back Spain and under 2.5 goals
Back 5/16.00 Bet Builder on corners & fouls
What action there is should come in the second half, with five of Austria's last six having more goals after half-time than before. It's 11/102.11 for the second half to have most goals in here.
Mikel Oyarzabal is Spain's main goal threat, scoring twice and leading the team with four shots on target so he's the 1/12.00 favourite to score anytime but there's question marks around some of Spain's other playmakers.
Lamine Yamal has a goal and shown some flashes as he works his way back to full fitness, but after a promising 45 minutes against Saudi Arabia he was shut down by Uruguay and managed just one goal attempt and three crosses.
He's 5/42.25 to score anytime here and you never know when he could hit his stride, but he's not looked like it so far. That's even more the case for Nico Williams who has played just 48 minutes so far on his return from injury.
Marc Cucurella is an interesting one, he's only given away two fouls in one game so far, but now we're in the knockouts he'd be a top pick for 2+ fouls at 6/52.20. He's also had two shots on target in the tournament, and Austria have given away a few from wide players, so 13/53.60 on him for 1+ shot on target is a value standalone player prop.
Alex Baena has given away five fouls in just two games so even at 8/111.73 for 2+ fouls he's worth including in your Bet Builder shortlist, along with Spain to have 6+ corners at 13/201.65, which they've managed in every game so far.
Back Spain over 5.5 corners, Baena/Cucurella 2+ fouls