Drama and goals almost guaranteed
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Wednesday 15 June, 20:00 kick-off
Live on BBC1
AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Imagine Wednesday's clash in Atlanta being a drab affair with few chances and scant drama.
It's hard to, isn't it. As far-fetched as anticipating the Christmas Day episode of Eastenders going off without a hitch.
The reasons for this are multifold, a subplot stew consisting of Messi, Jude Bellingham's rise to superstardom, and the historical heft of famous conflicts won and lost, both on and off the pitch.
Then there's more recent considerations. That Argentina are the tournament's leading goalscorers, who also tend to drop off too deep at the back. La Albiceleste have scored every 35 minutes in the Americas and that's impressive. But they have also conceded to Jordan and Cape Verde (twice).
As for England, their knockout games have comprised of a five-goal, nail-biting classic in Mexico City and two comebacks.
No wonder Thomas Tuchel is advocating clinical thinking over heart.
He is, however, unlikely to get his wish and over 2.5 goals at 13/102.30 tempts as another high-scoring thriller awaits.
The Shots Bet - Messi from range
There is far more scope in this fixture for a long-range effort to test the keeper than elsewhere.
As noted above, Argentina at times afford vast swathes of space ahead of their back four with the goal in sight, a result of Lionel Messi poorly orchestrating their press.
He's not the greatest at everything.
England too have had problems in this regard, particularly against Croatia and Norway. It has even led to calls for Kobbie Mainoo to start midweek, over Elliot Anderson, despite the latter being largely excellent across the tournament.
It is Messi - astonishingly making his first ever appearances against the Three Lions - who is most fancied to take a pop from distance.
The GOAT has taken on 15 attempts from outside the box to date, more than any other player in the Americas. Against Switzerland he fired two from range, one on target.
Back Messi to have 1+ shots on target from outside box
The Goals Bet - Advantage Argentina
Argentina tend to start brightly, only failing to score first in two of their last 15 fixtures. Pertinently, they have converted inside half-an-hour in nine of those games.
For England, the opposite applies, scoring a mere five goals in their last 12 international games before the 42nd minute.
La Albiceleste are 11/102.11 to score first while backing them to be ahead on 30 mins offers up regrettably enticing odds.
Back Argentina at 30 minutes
The Cards and Corners Bet - Try this 13/27.50 wager
To date, the two teams have picked up a relatively angelic 13 cautions combined. That's a booking every 90 minutes.
Across the tournament meanwhile we have seen an average of 2.4 yellow cards per game, far below the norm. Under 2.5 cards is a shout at 6/42.50
Even the heightened stakes and the occasion doesn't come into play much here. The last six World Cup semi-finals produced 2.6 bookings in regulation time.
With a low card-count anticipated there is decent value in backing a tie come the final whistle.
Switching our attention to corners, it's interesting to note that Argentina have significantly upped their corner-count in the knock-outs compared to their group outings (22 won in last three games to nine in their trio of group commitments). Of course, two lots of extra-time is a factor, but so is harder opposition faced.
As for England, their corner-count is notably decreasing as they progress.
Back both teams to tie for cards shown and Argentina to win 2+ corners in each half
The Bet Builder - Combine these Three Lions at 26/127.00
Should England prevail - and reach their first World Cup final since you know when - it is critical that Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane both come to the fore, as they have done several times over this summer.
The latter was somewhat unjustly criticised for his display vs Norway but he still registered two shots on target, the 11th time he has posted multiple numbers in this regard in his last 18 international outings.
His passing was off, that's all. It happens.
Here he comes up against his former Spurs team-mate Cristian Romero, a player he arguably has the measure of.
Bellingham meanwhile is fancied to register a headed shot on target, having already done so three times to this juncture. England have had 24 headed attempts at the World Cup, more than any other team.
Lastly, fitness permitting, we can surely expect Bukayo Saka to make his third start in the tournament, especially after Noni Madueke disappointed last time out.
In addition to his assist record - racking up three so far - the Arsenal winger's work-rate will be invaluable combatting a flank where Argentina are strongest.
Saka has won 10 tackles in his last four England appearances, one every 23 minutes.
Back Kane to have 2+ shots on target, Bellingham to have 1+ headed SOT and Saka to make 3+ tackles