Lionesses desperate to take the next step
There's something incredibly familiar about England teams and near-misses, and ahead of a home European Championship, hopes are high that Sarina Wiegman's side can finally go all the way. England have reached the semi-finals in their last three major tournaments, reaching the final four in the 2015 and 2019 World Cups, and the 2017 Euros.
Wiegman, who replaced Phil Neville as coach last year, is a proven winner at this level. She led her native Netherlands to victory in 2017, and reached the final of the 2019 World Cup, only to suffer heartbreak at the hands of an excellent USA side.
The 52-year-old has vast international experience as a player and as a coach, and she showed her ruthless side by discarding veteran defender Steph Houghton from her squad, admitting that the Manchester City player had been angered by the decision. The need for ruthlessness is something Wiegman is trying to impress upon her charges as she looks to turn them from also-rans into winners.
England are one of the favourites to win the tournament (they are 4/1 on the Sportsbook and 5.59/2 on the Exchange, behind Spain in both markets), but they will face stiff competition. Spain have a core of players that have had great success at club level with Barcelona, while Germany have an outstanding record in this tournament. Sweden regularly reach the latter stages of major tournaments and are packed with talented players like Stina Blackstenius, Caroline Seger and Chelsea's Magdalena Eriksson. The Netherlands have world-class performers like Vivianne Miedema and Danielle van de Donk, and Norway can count on recently-returned superstar Ada Hegerberg and Barcelona winger Caroline Graham Hansen.
Starlet Hemp ready to shine
There's always something dazzling about a wide player who is willing to run at opponents, and even though it was ultimately in a losing cause, Manchester City's Lauren Hemp put in an outstanding performance in the FA Cup final against Chelsea. The 21-year-old scored a superb individual goal, and she has caught the eye all season. In the WSL term, Hemp produced ten goals and six assists in 22 games, and her underlying data was highly impressive. In terms of non-penalty Expected Goals, Expected Assists, progressive carries and Shot Creating Actions, Hemp was one of the English top flight's outstanding players, according to FBRef.com.
Hemp has been the PFA's Young Player of the Year in each of the last three years, and it feels like she has hit top form at just the right time. She can be backed at 33/1 to be the tournament's top scorer, and given that England have a straightforward group involving Northern Ireland, Austria and Norway, she'll have every chance to make a flying start. Indeed, Hemp scored twice in a 5-0 World Cup qualifying win over Northern Ireland in April.
Hemp will raid down the left, while right-winger Chloe Kelly's return from injury has been well timed. Forward Beth Mead has had an excellent campaign with Arsenal (11 goals and eight assists in the WSL), while veteran centre-forward Ellen White is England's record scorer (she is 6/1 favourite in the Top Scorer market.)
Captain Leah Williamson can play in midfield or defence, while Keira Walsh is one of the sport's most consistent central midfielders. Ahead of them, Georgia Stanway is a clever and creative performer, and she has just secured an intriguing move to German giants Bayern Munich.
Right-back Lucy Bronze isn't perhaps the explosive force she once was, but Barcelona have just snapped her up for a reason, and she is still an influential player. Rachel Daly is a free-scoring forward for Houston Dash, but is an option for Wiegman at left-back if the coach wants a more proactive player than the pragmatic Demi Stokes. Centre-back Millie Bright has become an important fixture in a Chelsea side addicted to winning trophies, and her probable partner Alex Greenwood is excellent on the ball.
England have depth, and a nice blend of youth and experience. They also have some creative wild cards that can change a game, like Chelsea's Fran Kirby and Manchester United youngster Ella Toone.
England should win their group, but what then?
England got a fairly kind draw. Austria are potentially awkward opponents in the tournament opener at Old Trafford, as they only lost 1-0 to the Lionesses in a World Cup qualifier last November, but they tend to fall short against elite opponents. Northern Ireland have done well to make it to a major tournament, and England swept them aside 5-0 in mid-April. The biggest challenge will almost certainly come from Norway, although England beat them 3-0 in the World Cup quarter-finals in 2019. Outstanding Lyon forward Hegerberg provides their best chance of causing an upset.
If England are to win this tournament, they'll have to do it the hard way. They'll face a team from Group B in the quarter-finals, and that realistically could be Germany, Spain or Denmark. A semi-final would pitch them against a team from the other side of the draw, with Netherlands and Sweden potentially lurking. Wiegman's side is certainly capable of winning this tournament, with the prospect of a Wembley final an inspirational one, but there are a lot of good teams. England feel a touch short to me at 5.59/2, with sides like Netherlands trading at 7.413/2 and Sweden priced at 8.415/2.
What you could do is back England to win the group at 2/9, and chuck that into a four-fold with Germany and Sweden to reach the last eight, and France to win Group D. That comes out at 2.0421/20, and I would back Hemp to make a flying start to the tournament against Austria and Northern Ireland by backing her in the Top Goalscorer market.