Leg 1 - Denmark v Wales: Denmark to Win @ 12/251.48
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Sunday 27 September, 17:00
Wales can take credit for holding Portugal to a single goal on Thursday evening. Craig Bellamy was forced to field a depleted side, most notably without Harry Wilson, and his team conceded 23 shots worth 1.93 xG yet still kept the scoreline respectable.
Denmark, meanwhile, were unlucky to lose to Norway last time out, with the decisive moments coming in the final quarter of the match. Up to that point there was little to separate the sides: both registered 13 shots and seven on target, and the xG was similarly close at 1.41 to 1.09.
Denmark will view this as the most winnable fixture in their group. That's no slight on Wales, but Portugal and Norway are both comfortably stronger sides, so if Denmark want to stay competitive, this is a game they need to win, particularly on home soil.
Wilson's absence is a significant blow for Wales. He was their top scorer in qualifying with five goals, and without him they lack that extra spark in the final third.
Leg 2 - Denmark v Wales: Ethan Ampadu to Committ 2+ Fouls @ 8/151.53
Ampadu had a tough time handling Portugal's midfield last time out, as he gave away two fouls, and I can see him running into the same problems here.
He's a key player for Wales. He often wears the captains armband and he's an established Premier League player with Leeds United.
His foul numbers in the top-flight aren't sizeable (0.80 per 90), but he's noticeably more aggressive when he pulls on a Wales shirt.
Leg 3 - Serbia v Netherlands: Both Teams to Score @ 5/61.84
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Sunday 27 September, 17:00
This selection landed in Serbia's Nations League opener, as they let a one-goal lead slip and lost 2-1 to Greece, with Douvikas grabbing the winner in the 95th minute.
Greece were worthy winners though, as they dominated the underlying numbers, firing off 26 shots and hitting the target with nine of them.
That said, they still allowed Serbia to rack up 1.42 xG from just nine shots, which shows the kind of attacking threat Serbia could carry into this one.
There were positives to take for Xavi's Netherlands last time out, as they struck late on to snatch a point against Germany.
In truth, they should have taken all three, having created 3.18 xG from 22 shots. Xavi's teams will always give up chances because of how front-foot he wants them to play.
I expect them to allow Serbia a few opportunities here, but they should have enough quality to come out on top.
Leg 4 - Norway v Portugal: Both Teams to Score & No Draw @ 11/102.11
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Sunday 27 September, 19:45
Norway are my pick here, and even with a new manager in place, I'm still not convinced Portugal have found the right balance. Norway have been a nightmare to beat at home over the past 12 months, as both Italy and Denmark have discovered recently.
For all that home strength, though, Norway do tend to leak goals. They didn't manage a single clean sheet at the World Cup, and they conceded twice against Denmark in their Nations League opener last time out.
Portugal aren't much tighter at the back themselves. They allowed 5.80 xG across their five World Cup games and kept just two clean sheets, against Colombia and Uzbekistan, and Colombia were really unlucky not to score in that one after racking up 1.70 xG from an eye-opening 24 attempts.
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