Germany are in fine form under new management and Dan Fitch thinks they will get a positive result against struggling Italy, as he picks Bet Builders for Saturday's Nations League ties.
Finland had the edge in recent encounters
Finland 2.6813/8 v Bosnia 2.8415/8; The Draw 3.211/5
Saturday 4 July, 17:00
Live on Premier Sports 1
Home advantage makes Finland the narrow favourites in this one, with neither side in good form. The hosts are without a win in three games (D1 L2), while Bosnia's victory against Luxembourg in their last outing, ended a run of four successive defeats.
These sides met in the latest World Cup qualifiers, with Finland drawing 2-2 in the home fixture and winning 3-1 away. You can combine Finland double chance and both teams to score in a Bet Builder and get odds of 2.47/5.
Nations League has helped Luxembourg grow
Lithuania 3.4549/20 v Luxembourg 2.3811/8; The Draw 3.02/1
Saturday 4 July, 17:00
Live on Premier Player
It says much for Luxembourg's progress that they are favourites for this match. Their improvement has been in large part due to the format of the Nations League, which has given them regular winnable fixtures.
Lithuania have kept it pretty tight of late, with only one of their last four games seeing three goals or more. Back Luxembourg double chance and under 2.5 goals at 1.84/5.
Germany can take advantage of Italy woe
Italy 2.8415/8 v Germany 2.727/4; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday 4 July, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1
It's hard to think of many changes of fortunes, as swift as Italy have suffered. As recently as last October, they were freshly crowned European champions, were through to the semi-finals of last season's Nations League and seemingly cruising through World Cup qualification. Since then, they've suffered defeat in the Nations League semis, finished second in their World Cup qualifying group, got knocked out of the play-offs by North Macedonia and in midweek were beaten 3-0 by the South American champions Argentina in Finalissima.
In contrast, Germany are unbeaten in nine under new manager Hansi Flick (W8 D1), since losing to England at Euro 2020. With Italy failing to score in three of their last four games, backing Germany double chance and under 3.5 goals, makes sense at 1.875/6.
Back score draw
Montenegro 3.259/4 v Romania 2.486/4; The Draw 3.185/40
Saturday 4 July, 19:45
Live on BoxNation
Romania are rightful favourites here, but Montenegro shouldn't be dismissed. The visitors have only lost two of their last nine games (W4 D3), but one of those losses was at home to Greece.
Montenegro beat Greece in their last outing and are capable of pulling off a surprise result, as they proved in November when they drew with Netherlands. Take a chance on the draw and both teams to score at 4.216/5.
Turkey will get off to flyer against Faroes
Turkey 1.141/7 v Faroe Islands 27.026/1; The Draw 9.89/1
Saturday 4 July, 19:45
Live on Premier Player
Turkey find themselves in Group C1 of the Nations League, against the Faroes, Luxembourg and Lithuania. They should make a swift return to the second-tier and it would be a major surprise if they didn't start their campaign with a solid win.
The Faroes regularly pull off positive results, but when they step up to a team of Turkey's level, they're generally defeated. Back Turkey half-time/full-time and over 2.5 goals at 1.8810/11.