England v Italy: Back Three Lions to win at Wolves

England v Italy
Saturday June 11, 19:45 kick-off
Live on Channel 4

England out to avenge Euro heartbreak

The timing and schedule may be awful, but the Nations League does keep delivering big games, as fresh from facing old foes Germany, England now get a Euro 2020 final rematch against Italy.

That penalty shootout defeat at Wembley will sting for decades, and while a victory at a near-empty Molineux will be scant consolation, Gareth Southgate's side will be desperate to right that wrong.

A draw in Germany was a better result and far better performance than England's opening loss in Hungary, and now they'll hope to earn just a third win against the Azzurri in 16 games (D4 L9) dating back to 1977.

Germany were the better side in Munich and should've won, with England making far too many mistakes in possession, miss-placing passes when under pressure and getting away with some average defending at times - but at least the energy and attacking creativity was vastly improved from Budapest.

Kalvin Phillips is likely out with a severe dead leg, but James Justin could return and Fikayo Tomori and Tammy Abraham could get the chance to play against opponents they know very well from their time in Serie A.

Mancini rebuilding after World Cup blow

Defeat to North Macedonia made it back-to-back World Cups without Italy, with that Euro 2020 triumph sandwiched in between in their classic boom-or-bust recent run.

So Roberto Mancini is rebuilding his side for the next Euros, and they've started off OK, with a battling draw against the Germans followed by a win over Hungary, both at home, as they head off for their first away game.

A dominant first-half display in our 2-1 victory over Hungary #ITAHUN #NationsLeague #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/SJcqiOozlm

-- Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 9, 2022

And Italy have been strong on the road as, apart from their defeat against Argentina at Wembley last week, they've not lost outside of Italy since September 2018 - that's a run of 16 competitive outings (W13 D3).

Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Belotti have left the squad to enjoy their summer break, as Mancini will again make changes, with Alessandro Florenzi, Francesco Acerbi and Gianluca Scamacca all likely to return.

Italians huge outsiders

Considering their record against England and recent away form, Italy are an eye-popping 5.04/1 for victory at Molineux - where they'll be no home fans due to a stadium ban for the shocking behaviour of fans at Wembley for the Euro 2020 final.

England are 1.758/11 despite as Southgate looks to avoid going three games without a win for the first time since 2018. The draw is 3.412/5 and well within Italy's grasp if they go in full-on defensive mode.

Italy have suffered a major hangover from the Euros though, winning just four of 12 games, including just two of the last seven, while England have gone 15 games at home without defeat in 90 minutes - and will face an Italian side that's a shadow of the victorious one from almost a year ago.

While the dead atmosphere of an essentially behind-closed-doors game could lower the chance for goals, there's plenty of motivation for England at least, and Italy have conceded in their last five games and kept one clean sheet in nine.

Given England's defensive lapses in the last two and more expected changes, I'm quite happy to take 2.111/10 on both teams to score here, even though under 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.728/11.

Grealish to get a rare start?

Harry Kane scored his 50th England goal on Tuesday, and is now just three behind Wayne Rooney's record. He obviously wants to play every game but surely Southgate will give him a break at some stage - although that may wait until Hungary at home next week.

Kane unsurprisingly leads the anytime goalscorer market at 2.111/10 with Tammy Abraham next best at 2.26/5. The Roma man hasn't played a minute yet in these two games, but knows a thing or two about scoring against Italian defenders so this could be his game.

Jack Grealish probably deserves a rare start here after another promising cameo in Munich - he had just 17 touches but seven of those came in the opposition box and his pass set-up England's late penalty.

Southgate is still unsure if he can do the donkey work early on in games and he may well be an impact sub going forward, but in either role he could still have a big say in this game.

He's a 2.56/4 shot in the score or assist market and that's a price we're happy to take here, especially if he's given the confidence boost of a starting spot.

"The challenge for the wide players to attack, defend, and score goals at a high tactical level, you've got to be spot on. I think that's an area Jack [Grealish] can get better at."

Gareth Southgate is asked why Jack Grealish hasn't been a regular starter for England pic.twitter.com/IwtySA8PGi

-- Football Daily (@footballdaily) June 8, 2022

For Italy, Lorenzo Pellegrini is 6.05/1 to score for the third game running, so will be keen to keep his place - with four of his five goals for his country coming in this competition.

We've seen previously how the lack of crowds can actually lead to a few goals, and in terms of the quality on show, England should have the advantage if the game opens up in any way.