Davies leads Wales in shots on target in Qatar
Spurs man has hit the target in last three games
Back the Welshman at 9/1 for 1+ shot on target
Well, well, well - when the draw was made we fancied this game might just have something on it, but now it's a huge contest with both Wales and England having a huge among riding on the outcome.
There are plenty of permutations for how both sides could go through or even go out as everything is still possible - for Wales it's a simple must-win game and then worry about what's happening elsewhere, while England know avoiding defeat will guarantee a birth in the knockouts.
Gareth Southgate's side have taken some stick for their 0-0 draw with the USA, but this World Cup has shown there' aren't too many easy games any more and plenty of big teams are struggling, so the message will be let's just get through and not worry too much about anything else.
The Three Lions certainly have a much better and deeper squad, and Wales have generally struggled but for a decent ending to the USA game with Kieffer Moore used as a battering ram - and doing the same and approach this like an underdog in an FA Cup tie seems their best bet.
Despite their 6-2 win over Iran, England are still on their worst eight-game run in two decades as that was the only victory to go along with four draws and three defeats - so confidence may not be high, but for Wales they're also on a long winless run stretching seven games
And against their old foes from across the border England they've lost the last six meetings by a combined 11-1.
This game should all be about superstars Gareth Bale and Harry Kane, but these two really need to step up their production as Bales has had just two shots in this World Cup so far, with one of those being the penalty against the USA, while Kane hasn't scored a goal for England in open play in 2022.
I think England could win this won handily if Wales go too gung-ho early on, but with Southgate's side only needing a draw but as huge favourites to win we're not too interested in the match result here.
Instead we're on more player props, and with England's players all pretty short is most attacking markets we're focusing on Wales where there's one player and one market that really jumps out.
Tottenham's Ben Davies is 9/1 for just one shot on target - which is something he's managed in both Wales games so far in the World Cup and in fact something he's managed in his last three games for club and country.
It's a nice juicy price for a player that's had the second most attempts at goal so far (3) and the most shots on target (2) for Wales in the tournament.
Davies seems to always be involved in set pieces at both ends of the field, and with Wales needing to attack to try and win this game at any cost then there's no reason why Davies can't have plenty of chances.
So for this huge game we'll keep this nice and easy and just sit back and cheer on Davies to get an effort in on goal for a big payout.