Valladolid v Getafe: Back 3/1 double in huge La Liga drop battle

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Pepe Bordalas is back in charge of Getafe - and has them fired up

Our football props column explains why you should back home corners and visiting cards in Sunday's crucial relegation battle in La Liga.

  • Getafe love a card and need a result

  • Valladolid must win, can force corners

  • Back 3/1 Bet Builder double


It could be quite a final day in La Liga on Sunday with no fewer than six teams still fighting against relegation.

One spot remains to be filled but all six teams know a final-day victory will secure safety.

Most eyes will be on this game with Valladolid the team in the drop zone at kick-off. They need to win to be sure of survival, although a draw may be good enough depending on other results - and remember teams level on points are separated by head-to-head record in Spain, not goal difference.

Getafe, meanwhile, will be safe with a draw.

Leg 1: Over 3.5 Getafe cards

They have long had the ability to shut down games - they've scored only 34 goals in 37 games this season but have also conceded just 45.

Expect them to produce a defence-first performance here, particularly given the key absentees they have in their line-up.

Main strike threat Enes Unal is out injured, while defensive lynchpin Djene Djakonam is suspended, along with Portu.

Boss Pepe Bordalas will likely ask his men to hold what they have - a 0-0 here keeps them up remember.

How they go about it is potentially a route to profit with Getafe long regarded as one of the dirtiest teams in La Liga. Although that reputation eased a little under the leadership of Quique Sanchez Flores, you can be sure that they will foul their way to a result if necessary and cards can be expected.

Since Bordalas returned to the Getafe dugout in late April, Getafe have very much returned to their dirty ways with card counts of 5-7-4-3-5-3.

As you can see, they've landed over 3.5 cards in four of the six games with the other two only just missing. Given this, and what's at stake, I'm happy to put them down for over 3.5 again.

The referee is Jose Luis Munuera Montero who might not be the strictest around but he's a very decent carder, averaging 5.12 yellows per game and showing eight reds in his 17 league outings. In short, little to worry about on that front.

Leg 2: Over 5.5 Valladolid corners

I'm going to double that selection up with over 5.5 Valladolid corners.

They've averaged 5.06 per home game this season and when fighting for their lives over the past month or so, they've had tallies at Estadio Jose Zorrilla of 2-8-9-5, the two coming against champions Barcelona.

Given their need for three points, plenty of shots can be expected from the hosts and that could well lead to corners.

It's not hard to see Getafe getting men behind the ball and getting blocks on shots whenever possible so it's not unreasonable to think Valladolid can outrun their average here.

The Bet Builder double pays around 3/1 which, given the circumstances, looks more than fair.

Back over 3.5 Getafe cards & over 5.5 Valladolid corners @ around

3/1

More La Liga tips: Read Dan Fitch's final-day preview!

Recommended bets

Back Getafe over 3.5 cards & Valladolid over 5.5 corners @ around 3/14.00

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 319pts
Returned: 381.69pts
P/L: +62.69pts

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

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