Tuesday Football Tips: Back German shots as Italy see yellow

Germany v Italy
Tuesday 14 June, 19:45 kick-off
Live on Premier Sports 1

Germany are on a remarkable run of four straight 1-1 draws that they'll hope to snap by beating Italy on Tuesday.

One of those draws came in Bologna last week and now the rematch in Monchengladbach is the finale to this stint of four quick-fire Nations League matches.

It's five games for Italy if you count their 3-0 hammering by Argentina at Wembley, but they've responded nicely despite Roberto Mancini being without a host of his top talent.

Only two of their Euro 2020 final starters kicked-off against England in their 0-0 draw at the weekend, with younger, less experienced players putting their cases forward to become Azzurri regulars.

Hansi Flick also has some young players coming through, but his worry will be the lack of cutting edge from the likes of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz in recent games.

Flick's side have had no problems dominating possession, enjoying between 63-65% in the three games so far while also having 30 shots with 11 on target all adding up to just three goals.

At home here for a big game against the European champions, Germany will be on the attack so we're looking at their players in particular to get some shots in on goal.

Two players who came off the bench against Hungary at the weekend who should start, and be productive, are Ilkay Gundogan and Thomas Muller.

Muller is a no-brainer to hit the target and even if Gundogan has to operate deeper at times he's shown with both Man City and Germany how dangerous he can be when ghosting into the box.

For Italy, Mancini has been shuffling his pack a lot during this set of games, and still getting results. While the faces have changed their approach has not.

Italy had five bookings at home against Germany and three against England, and with over 2.5 Italy cards here priced at 2.56/4 we're more than happy to add that in for our Bet Builder treble.

Again they'll lose the possession battle with the Germans, and with a home crowd and high-tempo game from Flick's men, those three cards should come pretty easily.