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Faves Italy not looking prolific up top
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Albania conceded 4 in 8 qualifiers
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Back Italy/Under 3.5 Goals
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Italy v Albania
Saturday 20:00 (Live on BBC One)
Defending champs don't have a great record at Euros: six of the last seven have failed to make it past the first knockout round. If Italy are to mount a serious defence, they probably need to win this game - because Spain and Croatia are also part of a tough Group B.
Luciano Spalletti's Azzurri are much changed from the squad that won Euro 2020 under Roberto Mancini. Chiellini, Bonucci, Spinazzola, Insigne and others have all gone, leaving Spalletti to lean heavily on stars of Inter's Serie A-winning team like Alessandro Bastoni at the back and Nicolo Barella (an injury doubt for this game) further forward.
The big question is where the goals will come from. Atalanta's Gianluca Scamacca netted in a Euro qualifier against England, but that's his only goal in 15 internationals so far. Other forward options Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui have been out of form or favour domestically.
Albania could make life difficult for the Azzurri tonight. Sylvinho's men qualified ahead of Poland and the Czech Republic, and conceded just four times across eight qualifiers.
Stepping up to the next level, though, there's a lack of proven quality that has to be concerning. Their goalkeeper could be Brentford back-up Thomas Strakosha, while the star man is midfielder Kristjan Asllani, who struggles to get a game for Inter. Main attacking threat Armando Broja has mainly been warming the bench at Fulham recently.
Italy conceded just once across four friendlies since March, winning 3/4, with all four games ending with Under 3.5 Goals. Since the start of last year, 12/14 Albania games have ended with Under 3.5 Goals - and the exceptions were comfortable wins over weaker opponents (the Faroes and Azerbaijan). Italy, despite their issues, are at a different level. We'll take them to win a low scorer tonight.
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