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Sunday Football Tips: Pick of the props for play-off final

Andy Schooler
29 May 2022
3:30 min read

WHo will progress from Sunday's Wembley showdown?

Huddersfield Town vs Nottingham Forest
Sun 29 May, 16:30

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Our football props column has a delivered a ROI of 19% this season - on Sunday it focuses on the Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest Championship play-off final.

"Eight of the last nine Championship play-off finals have seen under 2.5 goals and six of those have had under 1.5."

Our football props column has enjoyed quite a season, producing a return on investment (ROI) of 20%.

Sunday's Championship play-off final brings the curtain down on the 2021/22 club campaign so Andy Schooler, who writes the column alongside Paul Higham, is aiming for one last profit from the big game.

Check out his best bets from those props markets...

Shots

Forest, the favourites to win this play-off final, have some renowned shooters in their squad, with Sam Surridge and Joe Lolley both very much shoot-on-sight merchants.

However, it looks like both will probably start on the bench here, while this season's most prolific shot-taker for Forest, Philip Zinckernagel, looks too short - he's 4/6 for 3+ shots despite his shots-per-90-minutes average being 2.77.

As is often the case in this market, you need to look beyond the obvious to fine the value and Forest midfielder Ryan Yates fits the bill.

He's a big threat from set-pieces and isn't afraid to shoot from distance. Those characteristics help show why he's third on Forest's shots-taken list this season.

I'm a little surprised to see him up at 7/5 for 2+ shots in this one, something he's managed in six of his last 13 games.

On the Huddersfield side of things, Tom Lees looks the man to back.

The defender (pictured) is another to offer set-play threat and he's managed to score five goals this season.

1280 Tom Lees Sheffield Wednesday 2019.jpg

It's worth noting that the Terriers have scored more set-piece goals than any Championship side this term while it's not hard to imagine them throwing the likes of Lees forward late on if they are chasing the game, which the match odds suggest they might be.

Lees managed a shot in both games he played against Forest this season and having also done so in both semi-final legs against Luton, he's a tempting pick for 1+ shot at 11/8.

Corners

Frankly, the corners markets look correctly priced up.

Forest are the right favourites in the most corners market at 4/6 - they've averaged 5.54 corners per game this season, whereas Huddersfield are more than a full corner lower at 4.46.

Huddersfield have also conceded more, although this time the difference between the sides is only 0.58.

Perhaps over 4.5 corners for Huddersfield at evens should be considered.

We saw in Saturday's Champions League final how the team chasing the game can press and win corners.

However, there look better opportunities elsewhere.

Cards

Under 3.5 cards has landed in all three of these sides' meetings so far this season yet it's up at 7/5 for their latest clash.

Given Huddersfield were second in the Championship fair-play table this season and Forest also finished in the top half, there could be some juice in that.

Referee Robert Jones has been fairly lenient in the Premier League in 2021/22, averaging under three cards per game but it's notable that when dropping down to the Championship he's averaged over four which is a bit of a worry for potential backers.

The play-off final's recent history also isn't good for those looking to play the unders - four of the last five have seen over 4.5 cards (an 11/10 shot this time).

With this in mind, a look at the 'player shown a card' market is worthwhile and it's that man Ryan Yates who again catches the eye.

He's collected eight cards so far this season, a fairly decent tally but not the worst.

But what is notable is his recent high foul count which reads 2-4-2-4-4-3-4 over the last seven games.

Something similar here would certainly leave him vulnerable to a card at 3/1.

While we're on cards, one in-play bet worth tracking will be Huddersfield's Lee Nicholls to be shown a card.

The Terriers' keeper has also received seven cards this season, six of which have been for time-wasting.

If Huddersfield are ahead with around 20 minutes to go, you know what to do.

Goals

The Championship play-off final has become well known for its lack of goals - you can hardly blame sides for being cautious given what's at stake.

Eight of the last nine finals have seen under 2.5 goals and six of those have had under 1.5. Both look tempting at 4/7 and 15/8 respectively, particularly for those Bet Builders.

Forest had the second-best defence in the Championship this term, while Huddersfield only conceded 47 goals in their 46 matches.

Both games between these sides in the regular season featured under 2.5 goals (Forest won 2-0 in Yorkshire, while Huddersfield won 1-0 at the City Ground).

Expect another tight game with the side which does get in front looking to do everything it can to maintain that advantage.

Mark O'Haire's in-depth preview of the Championship play-off final

Column P/L 2021/22

Staked: 275pts
Returned: 326.64pts
P/L: +51.64pts

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