Sevilla v Copenhagen: Improving hosts to claim win they need

• Both sides struggling for goals
• Must-win game for hosts
• Bet Builder backs Sevilla at close to evens

The one thing that stands out when looking at these sides' recent matches is the lack of goals.

Since Sevilla parted ways with Julen Lopetegui after a 4-1 home loss to Dortmund, their focus has been on tightening up at the back.

They've duly lost just once in five games - to European champions Real Madrid, when they played pretty well - and four of those matches saw under 2.5 goals.

It's been a similar tale for Copenhagen, who have drawn five in a row since a 5-0 thrashing at Manchester City. All five have seen under 2.5 goals.

The Danes are yet to score in this group and have really struggled away from home, unable to contain City in any meaningful way at the Etihad Stadium and also losing 3-0 at Dortmund.

With confidence on the rise and home advantage, I'd expect Sevilla to claim the win they need if they are to keep their qualification hopes alive.

If you add under 3.5 goals - an option which provides something of a safety net for punters - then you are getting almost even money and that seems perfectly fair.

You could try to double the price by adding over 3.5 cards.

These two sides have both averaged at least 2+ cards per game in the competition so far and there were five in the reverse fixture.

Referee Benoit Bastien looks a good appointment. He's the strictest ref in card terms in France this season by some distance and has shown over 3.5 cards in 20 of his last 28 UEFA club appointments.

The worry is one-sided games tend to produce few cards - Copenhagen's two away games in the group have failed to beat this line.

I'll therefore stick with the smaller Bet Builder price in the expectation that it will deliver a profit for this column.

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