Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid: Vinicius Junior v Llorente duel can deliver 17/2 winner

• Vinicius can draw fouls in Llorente battle

• Brazilian dangerman carded in 13 of 35 games

• Back Bet Builder double at around 17/29.50

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Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday 4 March, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

There may be a new format in this season's Champions League but, as we head towards the business end of the new-look tournament, it still promises to deliver much in the latter stages.

We've had some truly classic knockout ties in recent seasons and there's potential for more excitement in this one as the two Madrid giants go head-to-head.

Earlier in Diego Simeone's reign at Atletico, these derbies would often be attritional, Atleti trying to grind out a result from their rock-solid defensive base.

Times have changed, however. They aren't as strong defensively these days and their games tend to be more open affairs. Even with this being the first of two legs, I'm not expecting a tight, tense contest. After all, Atletico's Copa del Rey semi-final first leg last week brought a 4-4 draw away to Barcelona.

Both teams to score has landed in the last nine meetings of these two sides and is certainly worth considering at 3/41.75.

Leg 1: Marcos Llorente to commit 2+ fouls

However, my angle here is to focus on the likely battle between Real star Vinicius Junior and Marcos Llorente.

Vini Jr has featured towards the top of La Liga's most-fouled list for several seasons now; so far this term he sits second.

Spanish La Liga - Top 5 Fouls Won

Llorente is nowhere near as high on the fouls list but it's worth noting how he's coped (or failed to) in this fixture.

The right-back has committed 2+ fouls in eight of his last 12 starts against Real - and Vini Jr has often been his direct opponent down that flank, even when he had played further forward.

Llorente gets the nod for 2+ fouls here at 8/52.60.

Leg 2: Vinicius Junior to be carded

I also like the 3/14.00 on offer for Vinicius to be carded.

He's Real's most-carded player this season, receiving one in 13 of his 35 appearances.

In the Champions League, the Brazilian has been carded in six of his last 15 games and given the potential treatment he's going to get from Llorente, it's not difficult to envisage him becoming frustrated, or reacting to a foul - he's not got the longest fuse, it's fair to say.

Admittedly, referee Clement Turpin has been one of the lowest-carding officials in this season's Champions League, but that belies a long-term trend which had seen him show 4+ cards more often than not in UEFA club competitions across several campaigns.

With this derby having seen at least four cards in 14 of its last 15 stagings, I'd still expect Turpin to have a busy night and, if that book is out regularly, there's every chance Vinicius Junior's name will be taken.

The double pays around 17/29.50.

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