Judged on these sides' opening games of the World Cup, Senegal look fully-justified, odds-on favourites for this one.
Hosts Qatar produced a miserable display as they went down 2-0 to Ecuador, managing a paltry five shots - and three of those were from outside the penalty area.
In contrast, Senegal out-shot Netherlands 15-10 and the 2-0 final scoreline to the Dutch was certainly flattering. The African champions' performance (aside from that of keeper Edouard Mendy) could easily have earned a draw on another day.
From a props perspective, I think the best angle here is to back Senegal player shots and the two men I'm siding with are Idrissa Gueye and Youssouf Sabaly.
Midfielder Gueye gets forward more for his country than he does at Everton and that was highlighted against the Dutch when he managed two shots and almost scored in the second half.
Gueye hit 2+ shots in all four knockout games at this year's Africa Cup of Nations, while he managed the feat in one of the two World Cup play-off games against Egypt.
I'm happy to put him down for at least two more against opponents who look pretty weak.
As for Sabaly, he also managed 2+ shots on Monday in a game which saw him get forward with regularity from his right-back position.
A player who likes to try his luck from distance, Sabaly should get plenty of chances to raid forward here too.
If you are after a big price, then back him for 2+ again - and maybe throw in the Senegal win too - but I'm going to opt for the safer 1+ shot bet, one he's landed in all four of his international starts this year.
Put the two shots bets together in a Bet Builder and you get a price around 5/2 which looks sound business.
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Back Idrissa Gueye 2+ shots and Youssouf Sabaly 1+ shot in Qatar v Senegal @ around 3.55/2Get the best of our tips every day of Qatar 2022
Sign up for our World Cup Newsletter here and you will receive a daily email with the pick of our bets on every day of action in Qatar.Column P/L 2022/23
Staked: 148pts
Returned: 174.09pts
P/L: +26.09pts