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Ref Siebert a strict appointment
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16/1 player-card double tempting
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Back fouls Bet Builder at more than 4/1
Dan's the man for a clampdown
When it comes to cards and fouls markets, I've long placed plenty of emphasis on the choice of referee and my eyes lit up when Daniel Siebert was appointed for this Europa League semi-final.
The German is good on both fronts.
In card terms, he's shown at least four in 24 of his last 32 UEFA club appointments, while focus in on this season and you see that he's hit double figures in three of his seven games.
As for fouls, his average is high, those seven games producing a fouls-per-game figure of just over 27. For reference, the average for this competition as a whole is 23.1.
For my cards pick, I fancy a small-stakes punt on a 16/1 double.
Juan Cuadrado v Bryan Gil could be a good battle down the Sevilla left and both men have good cards records.
The tricky Gil, predicted to start by the Spanish press following injury issues for Erik Lamela and Lucas Ocampos in recent days, has been carded in five of his 15 club starts this season, yet is 10/3 here.
Cuadrado's numbers aren't quite so good but seven in 33 starts isn't bad, especially when you then take the ref into account. The converted wing-back has never been a natural defender and is certainly prone to a foul or two.
Rack up those fouls
That comment leads nicely onto our 1+ fouls Bet Builder in which Cuadrado features.
He's landed the 1+ fouls bet in seven of his last nine games in which he's played at least 45 minutes. He's also committed two fouls in five of those.
Likely opponent Gil has drawn 2+ fouls in six of his last seven starts so Cuadrado easily makes the cut.
His team-mate Adrien Rabiot is also an easy addition for the same bet - he's committed a foul in his last 13 appearances.
Danilo is the other Juve man to make it in. He'll likely line-up on the right of a back three brining Gil into the equation again.
He's hit 1+ foul in five of his last seven and, looking longer term, 15 of his last 22.
Moving onto Sevilla - the most-carded team in Spain this season - the aforementioned Ocampos and Fernando look men to follow for fouls.
Ocampos has fouled in seven of his last nine starts, while Fernando has delivered 1+ foul in nine of his last 11 (and was sent off in one of the others). The latter will be battling alongside Rabiot in central midfield.
The potential issue here is fitness - both men have been among the injury doubts for Sevilla this week and it's hard to be completely sure who Jose Luis Mendilibar will pick in his XI.
For that reason, make sure you check the team news around 75 minutes before kick-off - you can usually cashout and get your stake back if any of the selections are on the bench and then replace your bet picking only starters.
If all five men do start, the fouls Bet Builder pays out north of 4/1.
For a staking plan, let's go with two-thirds on that and one-third on the card double.
Read Dave Tindall's in-depth preview of Juventus v Sevilla
Recommended bets
Back Juan Cuadrado, Adrien Rabiot, Danilo, Lucas Ocampos & Fernando all 1+ foul @ around 5.39/2Back Juan Cuadrado & Bryan Gil to be carded @ around 17.016/1
Column P/L 2022/23
Staked: 296pts
Returned: 342.06pts
P/L: +46.66pts