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Luciano can prey to weakest defence
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Batalla to draw fouls in wing battle
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Back Bet Builder double at around 9/25.50
Juventude v Sao Paulo
Thursday 24 July, 23:00
With nothing standing out among the European qualifiers, we're heading to Brazil on Thursday night.
There are some standout stats involving these two sides which hopefully point us down the road to profit.
Leg 1: Luciano 2+ shots on target
The first is that Juventude have conceded more shots - and shots on target - than any other side in Serie A.
The latter data point is particularly strong with Juventude giving up 6.31 shots on target per 90 minutes - the next worst in the division is 5.0.
Sao Paulo forward Luciano looks the man capable of taking advantage here.
He's managed a shot on target in his last nine starts and is 1/21.50 for another in this contest. However, given the opposition, I think 2+ SOT is worth a try at 23/103.30, something he's landed in four of his last five outings.
Leg 2: Emerson Batalla to be fouled 2+ times
We also have the second-best team for committing fouls here - Sao Paulo - and there looks to be an angle down their left flank.
Left-back Enzo Diaz sits third in the league for fouls committed and while he's very short in that market, we can back his likely direct opponent to be fouled as a much better price.
Following Juventude's 4-0 thrashing at the weekend, Emerson Batalla is set to return to the starting XI and the right-sided midfielder has been fouled 2+ times in five of his last nine starts.
Given his opponent in this match, that's a stat which could well improve.
Put the two legs together and we get a Bet Builder which pays just over 9/25.50.
Back Luciano 2+ shots on target & Emerson Batalla to be fouled 2+ times