Gremio v Atletico Mineiro: Shoot for profit at 5/2 in Brazil

• Both sides strong on shots front

• Villasanti & Pavon regularly hitting 1+ shot on target

• Bet Builder double pays 5/23.50

Gremio v Atletico Mineiro
Saturday 22 July, (01:00 Sun, BST)
Live on Fanatiz

I'm keen to go down the shots route in this game and here's why.

Both sides are in the top eight in terms of shots taken in this season's Brazilian Serie A.

Meanwhile, hosts Gremio have conceded more shots than any other side in the division, this despite their lofty position of third in the table. This is also reflected by the fact they've conceded the most goals of any side in the top 13.

Leg 1: Mathias Villasanti 1+ shot on target

Sadly, the shots markets look rather clued up but there does look to be some value around when it comes to shots on target.

For the hosts, midfielder Mathias Villasanti has managed to hit a shot on target in five of his last seven domestic games (and seven of his last 11). In league football, it's six of his last nine.

Leg 2: Cristian Pavon 1+ shot on target

Meanwhile, in the visitors' ranks, it is Cristian Pavon who stands out.

The winger has landed this bet in seven of his last nine domestic matches and should be in confident mood taking on a defence which has had its problems.

A Bet Builder double on the pair pays around 5/23.50.

For those seeking something bigger, it's worth highlighting Renzo Saravia in the player-card market again.

His failure to be carded on Monday cost this column a big-priced winner so you can understand why we think he'll go in the book in this game.

But there is good reason to feel odds of 15/82.88 are too big - Savaria has now been carded in eight of 14 starts this season.

Referee Luiz Flavio de Oliveira is averaging above 6.5 cards per game so far this season so the visiting right-back could well find himself in trouble again.

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