Sunday Football Tips: Andre the cards giant in Rio derby

Flamengo v Fluminense
Sunday 18 September, 20:00
Live on Fanatiz

If you enjoy cards betting, there's nothing like a South American derby to get the juices flowing and that's exactly what's on offer on Sunday in Brazil.

Rio de Janeiro's biggest derby - the famous Fla-Flu clash - takes place in the Maracana and it's usually feisty.

The booking points make-ups (using the 10 for a yellow, 25 for a red system) for the five matches since crowds returned after COVID lockdown have been a remarkable 105, 130, 100, 150 and 90.

And the arch rivals head into this one knowing neither can afford to lose, while a draw will only see both lose more ground on leaders Palmeiras. The Rio sides currently sit third and fourth respectively, both having 45 points from 26 games.

Earlier this year, Fluminense beat Flamengo in the final of Rio's state championship, the Carioca, so there's also the element of revenge to spice things up a bit.

Referee Raphael Claus isn't a problem either - his last Fla-Flu game saw him produce eight yellow cards and two reds.

So, what's the bet?

First up, I'm happy to back over 2.5 cards for each team.

That's happened in all five of those aforementioned matches, while going back further it's landed in 10 of the last 16 played in front of fans which makes odds just above 6/4 look decent value.

To push the price to something much more attractive, let's add Fluminense midfielder Andre to be shown a card.

He's 21/10 to receive what would be his fifth card in seven starts in this derby.

So far this season, Andre has seen a card in 16 of his 46 starts too.

That data makes the price look simply too big.

Put the bets together and you get a Bet Builder just shy of 6/1.

Premier League: Check out our Sunday tipsheet!