Wednesday Football Tips: Manga card story set to unfold

South American football served this column well over the summer and we're heading back to Brazil on Wednesday night for a game which has all the ingredients for cards.

Ceara head Serie A for cards received (82 yellows and eight reds in 27 matches), with Coritiba fourth in that list (71 and 8).

We've also got a referee happy to wave the cards around. In his 18 Serie A games this season, Raphael Claus has shown 85 yellows and nine reds. He's not the strictest official in Brazil but it's a decent record.

Finally, these are two well-matched teams, battling against relegation.

The hosts head into it only outside the drop zone on goal difference, while their visitors are just three points better off.

Sadly, the layers are clued up to the potential for card chaos - it's just 4/7 there are over 5.5 cards.

But, as is often the case, there's better value to be had in the 'player to be shown a card' market.

While some obvious candidates are odds-on, such as Ceara midfielder Richard Candido, a man we've successfully backed at a much bigger price this season, Alef Manga is available at a tasty 11/4.

The Coritiba winger has been carded in seven of his 20 Serie A starts in 2022 and that's a record worth paying attention to ahead of a game in which the chance of cards is high.

Unfortunately there's nothing similar to be had among the Ceara players so to complete a 12/1 Bet Builder, I'm going to turn to the shots markets.

Let's start with Coritiba's Fabricio Daniel, who has regularly played as his team's main striker in recent weeks. Adrian Martinez remains sidelined so he looks set to continue in that role.

Fabricio has hit 3+ shots in four of his last five games and, playing for a team who sit seventh in the 'shots taken' table despite their lowly league position,

I'm happy to put him down for a repeat here. Ceara are eighth (of 20) for shots conceded.

The third and final leg is to back Ceara left-back Victor Luis for 1+shot.

Ignoring a game he limped out of after just six minutes, Luis has landed this in 12 of 14 starts in all competitions since Serie A began and here he goes up against the fifth-worst defence in terms of shots conceded.

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