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Italian ref has strong card stats
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Baba a good-value pick at 13/53.60
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Combine with Brugge star for 9/110.00 Bet Builder
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Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here
PAOK v Club Brugge
Thursday 18 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 7 (via red button)
We've already highlighted a couple of high-carding UEFA referees in this column this week and there will be another on show in Greece on Thursday night for this Europa Conference League quarter-final.
The tie is set up nicely with Brugge taking a 1-0 lead with them from a first leg which produced six cards and experienced official Davide Massa seems likely to deliver plenty more.
The Italian has shown 4+ cards in 24 of his last 34 UEFA club appointments, including all six this season with his tallies being 6-4-8-5-5-7. He's also averaging five per game in Serie A.
Of the eight teams remaining in the competition, Brugge are second for cards received (23 in their nine games). PAOK have collected 18.
Sadly, 6+ cards is only even money so the layers look clued up on that front but a market which could provide some value is the player-card one.
Leg 1: Hans Vanaken to be shown a card
And following last night's nice 7/24.50 winner, I'm prepared to take something of a punt on two players both finding their way into Mr Massa's notebook.
First, for the Belgians, I'm siding with captain Hans Vanaken at 9/52.80.
The midfielder has been carded in three of his eight Conference League matches this season and has nine cards in total across the season as a whole.
With Brugge having three suspended and a number of injuries, PAOK are odds-on for victory and Vanaken is likely to have plenty of defensive duties to perform.
Leg 2: Abdul Rahman Baba to be shown a card
For the hosts, left-back Abdul Rahman Baba looks good business at 13/53.60.
The former Chelsea man has picked up 11 cards in 31 starts this season, including five in 11 in this competition (including qualifying). No PAOK player has more.
He also leads PAOK for fouls committed in the UECL and his stats, plus the referee, make him a good bet.
The double pays around 9/110.00.
Read now our Thursday football cheat sheet!
Column P/L 2023/24
Staked: 228pts
Returned: 251.38pts
P/L: +23.38pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts