Thursday Football Tips: Get set for 4/1 card fest

• Ref Roldan averaging 6.88 cards per game

• Boca midfielder carded in 15 of 28 matches this season

• Back Bet Builder cards double at around 4/15.00

• Free Acca/Bet Builder offer returns this week!

Cruzeiro v Boca Juniors
Thursday 22 August, 01:30 (Fri, BST)

I mentioned a Brazil v Argentina clash briefly in Wednesday's column but sadly no card markets were available.

That's not the case on Thursday and this looks a game ready to turn into a card fest.

Leg 1: 7 or more cards

I've long noticed that the Brazil v Argentina club clashes produce high card counts and while I've not got long-term data to hand, I can say that last week's four such matches in the Copa Libertadores and Sudamericana produced card totals of 8-7-7-2. There were seven when these two sides met.

This second leg is nicely poised with Boca 1-0 up so it promises to be highly competitive with a place in the second-tier Sudamericana - the equivalent of UEFA's Europa League - up for grabs.

Only two teams have picked up more cards in this competition this season than Boca, while they are also second in the cards table in their domestic competition.

Cruzeiro's figures aren't quite so good but they are far from poor either.

We've also got a high-carding referee with Colombia's Wilmar Roldan having produced 52 yellows and three reds in his eight CONMEBOL club appointments in 2024. That's an average of 6.88 cards per game. If that's too small a data sample, last season he averaged 6.27 in 15 matches across the two competitions.

Roldan has shown 7+ cards in six of those eight matches. That, plus the teams involved, makes 7 or more cards look decent at 13/102.30.

Leg 2: Guillermo Fernandez to be shown a card

If that is to land, then there's a real chance that Boca's Guillermo 'Pol' Fernandez is among the recipients.

He's been carded in 15 of his 28 appearances this season, pure data which suggests he should be odds-on here.

We're actually getting 7/42.75 about the midfield enforcer and, given the referee, I think that's worth backing.

The Bet Builder double weighs in at just under 4/15.00.

Jones Knows: Premier League notebook for MD2