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Villa beaten only 3 times in 25 home PL games
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Elliott has had 4+ shots in his last 3 starts
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Back Bet Builder at north of 9/2
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Aston Villa v Liverpool
Monday 13 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event
Leg 1: Villa/Draw double chance
With Aston Villa having avoided defeat in 22 of their last 25 Premier League home games, I like the look of even money about them doing so again here.
Yes, Liverpool are one of the best teams in the league - they sit directly above Villa in the table, occupying third place.
But their long-standing hopes of title glory were finally extinguished on Saturday and so they will arrive at Villa Park with little to play for.
That contrasts with their hosts, who are still looking to achieve their primary goal of a top-four finish and the subsequent reward of Champions League football.
They very much remain in the box seat - there's a four-point gap to Tottenham with both sides having two games to play - but Spurs applied a bit of pressure on Saturday by beating Burnley.
Victory here would seal the deal but anything else could leave Sunday's final game at in-form Crystal Palace looking awkward indeed.
| Teams | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 85 |
| 2 | Man City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Man Utd | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49 | 56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 51 | 44 |
| 17 | Spurs | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38 | 75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 68 | 20 |
Essentially, motivation levels are poles apart and while it's hard to get away from the fact that Villa have lost three in a row, it's should also be pointed out Liverpool have won just three of eight and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last nine - their worst such run for 20 years.
I don't like Liverpool at odds-on here and will happily side with Villa in the double-chance market which means our bet will land even if the match is drawn.
Leg 2: Harvey Elliott 3+ shots
One of those who has shone during Liverpool's recent iffy spell which has essentially cost them their title chance - not to mention Europa League hopes - is Harvey Elliott.
Jurgen Klopp heaped praise on the youngster ahead of this game, saying: "If I regret one thing (this season) a little bit it's that Harvey didn't play often enough maybe".
In betting terms, Elliott has caught my eye in terms of his shot output.
His spectacular goal against Spurs last weekend was one of four shots in that game, repeating his efforts in recent away matches at Fulham and West Ham.
Elliott appears to have been given a bit more attacking licence and after last week's strike, confidence should be up, making shots even more likely.
Villa are, of course, no mugs defensively, so the bet I prefer is for Elliott to hit 3+ shots - that's 13/82.63 shot on its own.
Add it to the double-chance bet and we're getting more than 5/16.00 in our Bet Builder. That seems like a spot of Monday night value.
Back Villa/Draw double chance & Elliott 3+ shots
More Villa v Liverpool: Mike Norman's in-depth preview!
Column P/L 2023/24
Staked: 249pts
Returned: 274.58pts
P/L: +25.58pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts