Friday Football Tips: Plays your cards right with Pedrao

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Pedrao: Carded in more games than he hasn't this season

Our football props column heads to Portugal for a a 3/1 cards bet on Friday night when leaders Benfica will be looking to return to winning ways.

  • Brazilian defender carded 8 times in 15 games

  • Visitors have most fouls in Portugal this season

  • Bet Builder at 3/1 the suggestion


Benfica v Portimonense

On what is a fairly quiet night in Europe for props punters, I think there's a card angle to be found in Portugal.

That's largely due to referee Vitor Ferreira, who has taken charge of 11 domestic games so far this season and shown 68 yellow cards and four reds in those matches.

That's an average of well over six cards per game, while in the top flight he's averaging a massive 33.5 fouls per match.

The potential for cards is clear, especially when you consider Portimonense have collected 46 yellow cards (and one red) in just 14 games so far, putting them in the bottom six when it comes to fair play. On the fouls front, they've committed the most.

Given all this, I'm a little surprised to see visiting centre-back Pedrao priced up at 9/5 to be shown a card.

He's been carded eight times in 15 games in all competitions this season and while that's a fairly small data sample, his long-term record is strong too with 20 cards received in 62 appearances across the last two campaigns.

It should be a busy night for the Brazilian too with Benfica top of the table having won all seven home games so far, scoring at least three times in six of those.

Pedrao's side are also on a run of just one win in seven in the league, while earlier in the season when they visited Lisbon they were thrashed 4-0 by another of Portugal's giants, Sporting.

The obvious worry with the bet is that this game is simply too one-sided and therefore the card count is reduced but, that said, Benfica arrive on the back of their first league defeat of the season, while prior to that they had surprisingly exited the League Cup.

They are also without forward Rafa Silva through suspension, while Chelsea target Enzo Fernandez may be omitted given all the speculation over his future.

I'm therefore still happy to back Pedrao while, to complete a 3/1 Bet Builder, I'm going to add Portimonense to pick up the most cards.

I've already highlighted their large total of 47 cards in 14 games. In comparison, Benfica have been shown just 31.

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Recommended bets

Back Pedrao to be shown a card and Portimonense to receive the most cards @ 4.03/1

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 183pts
Returned: 220.01pts
P/L: +37.01pts

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

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