Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen
Friday 30 September, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
Our boys HJK made a flying start in Finland last night, but a late collapse saw them go down 3-1 at Honka to suffer their first league defeat since June. A tough one to take.
We'll zoom to Bavaria now for a crisis clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen at the Allianz Arena, a game I happen to be commentating on for Sky Sports and others.
Bayern have gone four league games without a win for the first time in two decades, having put together a run of three draws and a defeat. Indeed, the 1-0 derby loss at Augsburg last time out was their first failure to score in the league since February 2020, a run of 87 games. Bayern are creating the chances, but they have been sloppy in front of goal, underperforming their Expected Goals figure by 4.9 across the last four league matches. Coach Julian Nagelsmann insists he has no plans to resign, and believes a turnaround is coming.
Leverkusen are in an even worse position, having made their worst start to a Bundesliga campaign for 40 years. They have also significantly underperformed in attack compared to their xG, and star striker Patrik Schick has scored just twice in the league so far. Coach Gerardo Seoane is still "firmly in the saddle" according to CEO Fernando Carro, but the horse doesn't look in great shape.
Opta tell us that Bayer have lost on 22 of their last 28 visits to Bayern in the league, and I think they'll be beaten tonight by the champions, who should be able to expose a fragile Leverkusen defence. Goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is an accident waiting to happen, and the likes of Jonathan Tah and Edmond Tapsoba simply aren't performing as well as they can.
I'll back Bayern to win and both teams to score here on the Sportsbook at 2.111/10. Bayern have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Bundesliga matches, and at home it's just five shutouts across the last 15 home games in the top flight.
I'll break with FBOTD tradition here and recommend a second bet too. Joshua Kimmich has been boosted to 3.55/2 in the Anytime Assist market, and he takes set pieces, an area Bayer often struggle with. The German international midfielder already has two assists in the league this term, he got 11 last season and ten the season before that. It's too big a price to ignore.