Wednesday Football Tips: 6/1 Bet Builder for UCL semi

• Stand-in Saelemaekers good for shots

• Tough night in store for Dumfries

• Back 6/1 Bet Builder in all-Milan SF

Tight or open affair?

So, what do we expect from a Milan derby in the Champions League semi-finals?

The old stereotypes would suggest a tight affair with the catenaccio employed and defences on top.

With a second leg to come, that certainly can't be dismissed - and my colleague Mark O'Haire makes a good case for a low-scoring contest in his in-depth preview.

Yet, it's notable that 13 of the last 19 derbies have seen over 2.5 goals, including two of this season's three meetings. Also, remember there is no away-goals rule any more.

There were a whopping 37 shots in the equivalent Serie A fixture (26 and 19 in the other two games) and that's a market I'm prepared to dip into.

The nominal hosts at the San Siro on Wednesday look set to be without star man Rafael Leao, with reports in Italy suggesting he'll be on the bench at best.

That means a likely start for Alexis Saelemaekers, who will be expected to provide the shot output to replace that of Leao, who comfortably leads the way for Milan on the shots front this season.

The Belgian has had 2+ shots in all three recent games when he's been in the starting XI and Leao has not and that bet goes into our Bet Builder.

Shoot with Dimarco

On the Inter side, Federico Dimarco loves to get forward from wing-back and he's managed a shot in 31 of his 34 club starts this season. Both starts against Milan produced 2+ shots.

We'll take the safer option and go 1+.

On the Milan left, expect Theo Hernandez to get forward plenty - and that could spell trouble for Denzel Dumfries.

The Dutchman was one of the leading foulers at the World Cup and his numbers have been strong for Inter this season too.

Dumfries has landed the 2+ fouls bet in his last three Champions League away games and with Hernandez being Milan's most-fouled player, he can do so again.

Finally, Inter look good for the most corners - something they've managed in all three derbies this season.

If Leao is indeed missing, his dribbling and shot-taking ability should reduce Milan's potential corner output even more - and it's already well below that of Inter's.

In Serie A, Inter lead the corners-per-game averages 5.8 to 4.5, while Inter also hold he advantage in terms of corners conceded - 3.4 to 4.3 per match.

A four-legged Bet Builder pays out at 6/1 and looks worth a try.

Read Mark O'Haire's in-depth preview of the Milan derby