Milan v Inter: Go low on goals in San Siro showdown

• Milan potentially missing Leao

• Inter finding form ahead of run-in

• Go low on goals at San Siro

Leao injury an issue for Milan

AC Milan warmed up for Wednesday's titanic Champions League tussle with an eye-catching 2-0 success against Lazio on Saturday.

Goals from Ismael Bennacer and Theo Hernandez did the damage for the Rossoneri at San Siro to put Stefano Pioli's posse right back in the running for a top-four finish in Serie A.

However, an early injury to superstar forward Rafael Leao has put the Portugul international's involvement in midweek in doubt.

Alexis Saelemaekers has been lined up as potential replacement in the Milan XI, although Pioli said they would give the 23-year-old as much time as possible to recover before making a call on his inclusion in the squad.

Pioli also accepted his side were "not favourites" to progress. Looking to alleviate pressure on his players ahead of the sold-out showdown, the Scudetto-winning coach claimed, "Inter are a great team.

We are not favourites, but we don't care about that. We'll enjoy the occasion. There is excitement; we have a dream, and it would be great to fulfil it."

Inter impress in Roma success

Inter Milan picked up an impressive 2-0 success at fellow top-four hopefuls Roma on Saturday to consolidate their place in the Champions League qualification positions in Serie A. Federico Dimarco netted from a tight angle, and Romelu Lukaku made the most of a defensive howler to score the all-important goals, whilst Lautaro Martinez hit the crossbar.

Head coach Simone Inzaghi was full of praise for his players, and has close to a fully fit squad available ahead of the run-in.

The Nerazzurri boss said, "We now have options to rotate in attack and midfield. I have choices now, which I didn't have until January. I have tough decisions to make ahead of Wednesday and the players deserve great credit for that."

Lautaro and Eden Dzeko are expected to be recalled to the starting XI after starting on the bench at the weekend with Lukaku benched.

Elsewhere, one of Marcelo Brozovic, Hakan Calhanoglu or Henrikh Mkhitaryan will miss out in midfield with Danilo D'Ambrosio, Milan Skriniar and Robin Gosens the only expected absentees ahead of the first leg.

Nerazzurri firm favs at San Siro

Milan and Inter have met four times previously in European competition with the Rossoneri boasting an unbeaten record in continental competition against their city rivals (W2-D2-L0).

This season the duo have crossed swords three times with AC winning the first fixture before suffering back-to-back defeats without scoring against the Nerazzurri.

Milan 3.259/4 have conceded a solitary goal across their last six Champions League outings, yet the Rossoneri have faced 86 shots and an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 6.80 during that sequence.

Nevertheless, Stefano Pioli's posse ousted Napoli last time out, and have recorded a reasonable W5-D3-L3 when facing off against top-seven Serie A sides this term.

Inter 2.588/5 impressed in the group-stages and have since overcome Portuguese giants Porto and Benfica to set-up this final-four tie.

The Nerazzurri have found form in recent weeks, winning five fixtures on the spin, and Simone Inzaghi's troops have also progressed to the Coppa Italia final. Meanwhile, Inter are W5-D0-L5 against top-seven Serie A sides.

Back a low-scoring contest

Inter are understandable and justifiable favourites to clinch first leg honours, although there's little wriggleroom in the price to support the Nerazzurri.

The 1x2 and Handicap markets are also difficult to enter without knowing the availability of Milan's most influential forward Rafael Leao, so I'm instead focussing my attention elsewhere.

Under 2.0 & 2.5 Goals is available at 1.875/6 on the Exchange and should have a good chance of providing profit.

The magnitude of the match, the sizzling rivalry and the pressure of playing in front of an expectant sold-out San Siro should ensure we're in for a tight and competitive contest. It's hard to imagine this match escalating into a high-scoring shootout.

Backing the proposed play sees punters make money should fewer than three goals be scored.

Eight of Inter's last 10 match-ups with Italy's leading lights have featured successful Under 2.5 Goals selections, and 11 of Milan's previous 14 Serie A showdowns have also been low-scoring affairs.

Three of the duos four quarter-final ties also saw this bet bank.

With a tight and tetchy contest anticipated, the following Bet Builder focussed on opposing goals and supporting fouls may also hold appeal; Under 3.5 Goals, plus Olivier Giroud, Sandro Tonali, Denzel Dumfries and Nico Barella all to commit at least one foul, which pays a generous 2.84.