Wolves v Norwich City: Old Gold look too good to turn down for Molineux farewell

Alan Dudman
14 May 2022
4:00 min read

Wolves manager Bruno Lage will be hoping to end the season on a high at Molineux on Sunday

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Norwich City
Sun 15 May, 14:00

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Alan Dudman made a 5pt profit from his Norwich preview at Leicester in midweek with three from four bets, and he is once again on Canaries duty for Sunday's game at Molineux...

"And whatever way you slice the stats, they come off badly. They have scored just 10 goals on the road all season and even the reliable warhorse Teemu Pukki is looking jaded."

Back Wolves -1 in the Norwich +1 market @ 2.427/5 Wolves v Norwich

Lage seeking strong Molineux farewell

Following a spell on the sidelines with Covid-19, Bruno Lage and his backroom team of Luis Nascimento and Tony Roberts are all set to return to the dugout for Sunday's farewell at Molineux, and what a nice game to come back to after the mauling at the hands of Kevin De Bruyne earlier this week.

Asking to face a roaring Manchester City at full tilt and then face Norwich is akin to singing off against Elvis Presley in the X Factor knowing you have Chico waiting for you in the next round.

Wolves lost their final home league game last season, going down 2-1 against Manchester United. They've not done so in consecutive campaigns since a run of three between 1996-97 and 1998-99, and this looks the ideal scenario for a team that will bid farewell to a number of players such as John Ruddy, Fernando Marcal, Romain Saiss and Joao Moutinho all seeing their current deals ending at the end of the season. Saiss has already indicated he is off, and Bruno Lage has a busy summer in terms of recruitment.

Fifty points and five behind West Ham ranks as a satisfying season, although the Molineux faithful will want more goals next term; as they have only netted 19 in the Midlands from their 18 games thus far. They are now basement 1.011/100 in the Top 10 Finish Market, and that's one to bear in mind for an ante-post punt next term.

It's likely that Daniel Podence is also expected to the match alongside long-term absentees Max Kilman and Nelson Semedo.

Norwich booked for rock-bottom as season goes from bad to worse

The end of season cannot come soon enough for Dean Smith and Norwich. I was slightly perturbed pre-Leicester on Wednesday night with some quotes that manager Smith was already preparing for the incomings and indeed outgoings for their season in the Championship earlier in his tenure.

That smacks of acceptance, acceptance they were going down. Of course it's been a shocking season and the apathy around Carrow Road is now morphing from frustration to anger, but indicating the season was over so far down the line looked a bit like giving up early.

Dean Smith Press Conference 1280.jpg

Of all teams to have played at least 20 Premier League games on a Sunday, only QPR (13%) have a lower win rate than Norwich (16%), who have won just seven of their 45 such matches. And whatever way you slice the stats, they come off badly. They have scored just 10 goals on the road all season and even the reliable warhorse Teemu Pukki is looking jaded.

My ante-post bet and selection of Norwich for rock-bottom is still on course for the 3pt pick at 2.26/5 - a price that seems unimaginable now. They are 1.141/7 with Watford now 5.79/2 for that market, so hopefully we can land that to push us over the 30pt profit mark for the season.

Wednesday's defeat at the King Power at least showed some encouraging first-half signals, but they are small crumbs in old mother Hubbard's cupboard - and it's been bare all term. They lacked the tempo of Leicester, and as soon as they conceded the goal in the second 45, their heads were down. Nineteen-year-old winger Tony Springett, on his first start, looked at least a player for the future - and that's the way Smith has to go.

Josh Sargent, Mathias Normann and Kenny McLean were missing in midweek with Smith making four changes, with Tim Krul, Kieran Dowell and Brandon Williams all benched. They could come back in.

Smith wants them to play with freedom now they are down, but they were torn apart by West Ham last weekend losing 4-0, backed up by a 3-0 loss and five straight defeats without a goal in their last four.

Exploring the handicap route again - but not the half time market

The market is virtually the same in terms of the outright Match Odds from my last preview in tipping a Leicester win to cover than two-goal handicap. I outlined earlier in the week that the Foxes were still a good bet at around 1/2 if you like those sort of prices, and Wolves to win at 1.4840/85 isn't bad at all considering they hold a higher league placing than the Foxes.

There isn't a hope I will be backing Norwich, and they are 7.06/1 for this - a shorter price by a point than they were a few days ago at the King Power. Wolves have never lost a top-flight home game against Norwich (W8 D2), keeping a clean sheet in seven of their 10 such games against them according to Opta, and that's a very strong stat to go into Sunday with.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Norwich City

Liverpool 3 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 1 Norwich City
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 5 Manchester City
Chelsea 2 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 3 Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley 1 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers

Norwich City 0 5 Tottenham Hotspur
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 1 Norwich City
Leicester City 3 0 Norwich City
Norwich City 0 4 West Ham United
Aston Villa 2 0 Norwich City
Norwich City 0 3 Newcastle United

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Norwich City Sunday 15 May, 14:00

Full stats

They did record an xG process of 1.26 at Leicester - an improvement on the lowly 0.78 against West Ham. But their xGA from both is big; as they allowed 3.26 and 2.57 from their previous two games.

I am keen to explore the handicap route again as I just cannot see Norwich scoring; and the Norwich +1 bet for Wolves -1 pays 2.427/5, which is not bad. Do I see Wolves scoring two goals? Yes, as they looked bright in attack at times against Manchester City, but they won't be De Bruyned here.

I am shunning the Half Time market, as that was the only one that failed on Wednesday. It's a bet I don't seem to have much joy with and while the offer to win the first 45 minutes is odds-against, we'll play over the 90 at around 6/4.

Jiminez in the Bet Builder treble appeals

It looks a good match to play the Bet Builder to boost the options on the Sportsbook as Norwich's goal difference of -56 is the third worst in Premier League history, after only Derby in 2007-08 (-69) and Ipswich Town in 1994-95 (-57), if you have a team that can't score and concede - it's a good set-up for a punter, especially with that away tally of just 10 on the road for City.

The Both Teams To Score price once again is a bit of a standout at 10/11, and I'll include that as a straight bet, and we can play on the treble with Raul Jiminez to Score Anytime. His last league goal came in March against Watford in a 4-0 home victory and the game was over inside the first 35 minutes with three goals.

The Old Gold aren't exactly in form themselves and are without a win in five, but with it being the final match at Molineux, it could make for a stroll in the park.

If you are looking for a Correct Score bet, and those will be quite good for trading as Norwich have won just one of their last 20 Premier League games on a Sunday, beating Burnley 2-0 last month (D4 L15). Away from home, the Canaries are winless in their last 10 top-flight Sunday games (D2 L8), losing the last six by an aggregate score of 22-3. That aggregate puts in place for a 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 wins at 7.613/2. 7.87/1 and 11.010/1.

Alan Dudman's Premier League P/L

2021/22: +25.69

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Recommended bets

Back Wolves -1 in the Norwich +1 market @ 2.427/5 Wolves v Norwich
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Back Both Teams To Score 'No', Wolves win and Raul Jiminez to Score using the Bet Builder @ 3.814/5 Wolves v Norwich

Ante-post bets previously recommended
Lay Brighton Top Six Finish @ 6.611/2 (no offers)
Back Norwich for Rock Bottom @ 2.26/5 (3pt bet) (now 1.351/3)
Back Southampton @ 3.02/1 for a Top 10 Finish (now 30.029/1)