Wolves v Liverpool: More away day joy for recovering Reds

Wolves v Liverpool
Monday 15 March, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Mid-table Wolves stuck in no man's land

After losing Raul Jimenez to that sickening head injury at the end of November, Wolves went on a horrible league run that threatened to drag them into a relegation battle, winning just one (W1-D3-L7) of their next 11 games.

But credit to Nuno Santo's men for turning that poor form around, winning a trio of league games from the start of February over Arsenal, Southampton and Leeds, and in addition to three draws it means Wolves have lost just one - to Manchester City no less - of their last seven Premier League games.

What it all means though is that Wolves, with 10 league games left to play, are pretty much in no man's land; a great run of form is unlikely to get them into Europe, a poor run of form won't drag them back down to the bottom three.

After three consecutive away matches Wolves will be glad to be back at Molineux where they're unbeaten in their last three league games (W2-D1), though it's perhaps worth pointing out that in their last three home games in all competitions - against Leeds, Leicester and Southampton - they've managed just seven shots on target to their opponent's 18, and they've enjoyed less possession each time.

Santo has no fresh injury concerns and effectively has the same players available to him as he has had during Wolves' recent upturn in form over the last four weeks; Daniel Podence and Jimenez being the two big names that have been absent during that time.

Nothing wrong with Reds on the road

Liverpool are in huge danger of failing to qualify for next season's Champions League via a Top 4 Finish in the Premier League, though of course, Wednesday's 4-0 aggregate win over RB Leipzig means they're in the last eight of Europe's premier club competition - the winners automatically qualify for next season's tournament.

Domestically it's easy to say that Liverpool have been dreadful in the league in recent months, and while that is largely true - especially in comparison to their title-winning form last term - it's only really their form at Anfield that has fallen off a cliff.

Jurgen Klopp's men have now lost six on the spin on home soil, and quite incredibly, the Reds have scored just one goal at Anfield in their last seven game. Even more staggering is the fact that they're on a run of 99 shots at goal without scoring on Merseyside.

The above is the reason why Liverpool have fallen to eight in the table, eight points behind fourth-placed Chelsea. But away from Anfield there's absolutely nothing wrong with the form of Klopp's men. They've won five of their last six, including excellent 3-1 victories at top-four-chasing Tottenham and West Ham and a brace of 2-0 wins over Bundesliga title contenders RB Leipzig.

Liverpool remain without their three senior centre-backs, while Jordan Henderson is still a few weeks away from a return to training. Roberto Firmino missed the last two games with a knee injury and is rated 50/50 to return on Monday night, though his absence has been negated by the return of striker Diego Jota who was was excellent in the Reds' midweek win over Leipzig.

Liverpool worthy odds-on favs

It may perhaps come as a surprise that a Liverpool team that has lost six of its last seven league games are as short as 1.784/5 to win at Wolves, but there are a number of factors that make that price absolutely right.

Five of those six defeats came on home soil, and while some of those losses were hugely disappointing we must remember that away from Anfield - which includes the neutral venue games v Leipzig - Liverpool's recent form has been excellent, winning five of their last six and scoring 13 goals in the process.

Wolves meanwhile have been relatively poor in front of goal recently, scoring just seven goals in their last 10 matches, and at Molineux they've become pretty shot-shy too as I alluded to earlier (just seven shots on target in their last three games).

Another stat that may come as a surprise is, that despite being without Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Joel Matip for much of the season, in the 23 league games played since VVD got injured Liverpool have conceded more than once in a game on just three occasions.

The Reds looked excellent with Fabinho back in midfield and Jota in attack v Leipzig in midweek, so in addition to everything I've said above I have no problems favouring Liverpool to win at their odds-on price. Wolves can be backed at 5.49/2 with the Draw available at 3.929/10.

Goals market also has it correct

It's hard to argue with Under 2.5 Goals being the favourite here at 1.910/11 (over is 2.111/10), and you could even make a strong case for that price being on the generous side when simply considering recent results.

Eight of Wolves' last 11 games have finished with two or fewer goals and Santo's men have scored just eight goals themselves in that time, while for Liverpool every one of their last six matches have finished either 1-0 or 2-0.

The concern I have in backing 'unders' is that I thought Klopp's men looked much more like their old selves in midweek with Fabinho back in midfield, while Jota was straight back to the excellent form he was in before his injury layoff. They could easily have scored three or four and a reproduction of that performance might just see them win comfortably here.

Jota to net in an away win

Given his three-month injury layoff and Liverpool's woes while he was absent it's easy to forget just how good a start Diego Jota has made since he moved from Wolves in the summer.

The 24-year-old has made just six starts for the Reds in the Premier League (five substitute appearances) and has scored five times. In the Champions League he's started five games and scored four times. And prior to being injured he was Liverpool's in-form striker, scoring eight goals in eight appearances.

Jota is yet to score since returning from injury but he was excellent in the 2-0 win over Leipzig in midweek and really ought to have gotten on the scoresheet, and he'll be desperate to find the back of the net against his old club.

He's 13/8 on the Sportsbook to score (anytime) on Monday night, but we can boost those odds to just over 9/4 by including a Liverpool win also.

*You can follow me on Twitter: @MikkyMo73