Wolves v Fulham: Shaky defences the route to profit

Raul Jimenez
Raul Jimenez: Wolves star

Wolves and Fulham have both had defensive problems in the opening weeks of the Premier League season - Andy Schooler bids to profit from that on Sunday...

"Newly-promoted Villa and Sheffield United both scored at Molineux last term and with the home defence awash with problems right now, Fulham can do the same."

Back both teams to score @ 2.35/4

Wolves v Fulham
Sunday 4 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Wolves woeful at West Ham

Wolves produced arguably their worst performance since their return to the Premier League last week, losing miserably at West Ham.

The 4-0 scoreline was fully reflective of their lack of both creativity in forward areas and attention at the back - the Hammers could have scored more.

Coming a week after a 3-1 home loss to Manchester City, boss Nuno Espirito Santo clearly has had some work to do on the training field this week.

In many ways, it's understandable that Wolves have endured a difficult fortnight.

They've sold both Matt Doherty and Diogo Jota, two mainstays of their team of the last couple of seasons. Another regular, left-back Jonny, hasn't played due to long-term injury.

His stand-in Marcal was also injured last week, while even Daniel Podence, arguably their best performer in the opening couple of games, missed out at the London Stadium.

He could return for this one but it is further back where the biggest issues have been with Wily Boly's form a long way from its best so far this term and clear problems in the full-back positions.

New signing Nelson Semedo made his debut last week so is only just fitting in. Shipping four goals meant the teams he has played for in his last two matches have now conceded 12 times - he was also part of Barcelona's Champions League horror show v Bayern Munich.

The positive for Wolves right now is that Fulham are on their way to Molineux.

Three and easy v Fulham

It has been a worrying return to the top flight for the Cottagers, who have already conceded 10 goals in their three games - Arsenal, Leeds and Aston Villa have all put at least three past them.

Scott Parker's men simply don't look capable of keeping sides out, too often being caught with too many players on the wrong side of the ball - one pass often taking several out of the game.

That at least does signal an attacking intent, admirable if perhaps somewhat naïve.

Parker did win plaudits for his tactical approach at times towards the end of last season but he certainly has a job on his hands this time around.

The good news is that he has a proper goalscorer in the shape of Aleksandar Mitrovic and the recent addition of Ademola Lookman may result in more chances being created. The former Everton man impressed as a substitute against Brentford in the League Cup in midweek - another game which saw three conceded, albeit Parker made 10 changes.

Wolves likely to bounce back

Given Fulham's defensive issues, this does look a good opportunity for Wolves to bounce back to winning ways, although it's no surprise to see them at a short price to do so.

Wolves are at 1.548/15 to win the game with Fulham out at 8.07/1, the sort of price we're going to see regularly in their away games, one suspects. The draw is 4.47/2.

My initial thoughts on this contest were that Wolves could win easily - as Arsenal and Villa have done against Fulham already.

However, the hosts are just 1.855/6 to cover a one-goal handicap. That's too skinny for me given how poor they were at the back last week.

Both teams can find target

Fulham may not offer the same threat as West Ham but they did put three past Leeds in the previous away game and in Mitrovic have a player with the goal touch.

1280 Aleksandar Mitrovic Serbia.jpg

Throw in the much-increased chance of penalties following the change in the handball law and I'm put off the handicap market and am instead more enthused by the both-teams-to-score one.

It's not too often the 'yes' option hits 2.35/4 but that's the case here.

Wolves, who scored in 16 of 19 games at Molineux last season, should have few problems meeting their side of the bargain.

They struggled to deliver for over 2.5 goals backers in 2019/20, their figure of 37% being well down on the average of 52%, which helps explain why that option is at 2.166/5.

However, they were above average for BTTS at 55%.

Newly-promoted Villa and Sheffield United both scored at Molineux last term and with the home defence awash with problems right now, Fulham can do the same.

It's hardly the most confident bet but there looks to be some value in the price.

Opta fact

Wolves have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing more consecutively in November 2018 (3). They've conceded seven goals across these two defeats, more than they had in their previous 11 Premier League games combined (6).

Click here for more weekend Premier League betting tips

Andy Schooler's P/L 2020/21

Staked: 15pts
Returned: 10.74pts
P/L: -4.26pts

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