Wolves are too short a price for a number of reasons and with Brentford looking good so far, we have to take on the hosts, says Jamie Pacheco...
"A lay of Wolves at 1.9520/21 makes lots of sense. They’ve started the season far better than Wolves, secured two draws away from home against sides of a similar level to them already and have been good in defence."
Wolves forwards need to find their shooting boots
Wolves finally stopped the rot with a 2-0 win over Watford last time out. This was after losing their first three games of the season; curiously all of them 1-0 defeats. To make matters worse, they'd also lost the last three games of the previous campaign so they really were on a bad run before that Watford win.
Mind you, two of those losses were to fast-starters Manchester United and Tottenham so maybe it's not so bad after all.
It's great to see Raul Jimenez back after that horrendous injury last term. But he hasn't had things all his own way. Far from it. In four matches he's picked up two bookings and had 13 shots at goal without scoring; the most of any player in the league.
Teammate Trincão has a record of his own: his seven shots on target are the most of any player without scoring. Stats from Opta.
Bees quickly out of the blocks
Brentford will be pretty happy with their work so far.
They were probably somewhat fortunate to have played an Arsenal side full of problems first up at home but they made the most of it with a fine 2-0 win.
They then secured back-to-back away draws at Palace and Aston Villa before losing to a late, late goal at home to Brighton. Those are the sort of lapses that could cost them come May.
But having been backed at a low of 2.0 before the season started, they're now out to 4.03/1 on the relegation market over on the Exchange, suggesting punters are impressed by what they've seen so far.
Ivan Toney, of whom much is expected, has played every minute so far and has scored once. The destiny of their season may be very dependent on how many goals he ends up with.
Wolves are odds-on. Should they be?
I'm not so sure. I'll start by looking for reasons as to why they may be.
They do admittedly have a strong record in home games against promoted sides since returning to the Premier League. They've won six out of eight.
They've also beaten Brentford three of the last four times they've played them in the league.
Brentford have also only beaten Wolves once in the five away games they've played them in during the 21st century.
But then again, the Bees don't need to beat them, they just need to not lose to them.
A lay of Wolves at 1.9520/21 makes lots of sense.
They've started the season far better than Wolves, secured two draws away from home against sides of a similar level to them already and have been good in defence. They've conceded just twice in their first four games and would join an elite club of two (Everton 1992-3) if they had only let in two goals after the first five Premier League games of the season.
So plenty of room for maneuver with that lay. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this ends 0-0, which by the way, is an 8.2 chance on the Exchange.
If like me, you think this could be a low-scoring match, you're not going to get any better than 1.584/7 on the Exchange on under 2.5 goals.
That's not too surprising. All four of Brentford's games this season stayed under 2.5 goals, as did all of Wolves'. So eight games going the same way this season is the main reason for that short price.
But at a considerably bigger 1.768/11, you can go with 'no' on both teams to score.
With the exception of Brentford's 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, all the other seven games involving these two sides this season have all had at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
But if you do fancy Wolves to get a goal, the man to go with might not be Jimenez. At odds of 11/10 that's too short a price for a player who may still need a few more games to get back to his best after what happened last season.
I prefer Trincao at 3/1. As per that Opta stat, he's hit the target seven times already, so surely it's only a matter of time before he scores.
Wolves are generally good when it comes to getting more corners than their opponents at home. Brentford don't get many corners at all. The hosts are 1/2 on the corner match bet and alongside Trincao, the Bet Builder comes to 6.59.
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Jamie's 2021/22 P and L
Points Wagered: 4
Points returned: 0
P and L: -4 pts