Wolves v Aston Villa: Grealish can net in West Midlands stalemate

Wolves v Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Jimenez absence further hurts Wolves' goal drought

Wolves have run Liverpool close in the last couple of seasons but they were convincingly beaten 4-0 at Anfield last Sunday evening.

Does that suggest things are going to get a little tough without the energy and goal threat of the absent Raul Jimenez?

Goals are certainly an issue and Nuno Espirito Sanchez's men have managed a paltry tally of 11 in 11 games. That's led to an overall goal difference of -4.

They'll start this current round of matches 10th in the table which is below where many would have placed them in pre-season forecasts (although they've never really been fast starters).

That said, Wolves won 2-1 at Arsenal before the Liverpool trip and they did the double over Aston Villa last season.

Adding to that is the stat that Villa have been defeated on their last three trips to Molineux.

Villa suffering rocky spell

After their spirited finish to last season and fast start to this one, it was interesting to try and predict what would happen next with Villa.

Would they be this campaign's surprise packages or would they quickly back into the pack?

After four defeats in their last five Premier League games it would appear to be the latter. There is a win during that run although that came at Arsenal. Anyone can win there, as Wolves will tell you (wink emoji).

The run of losses means Villa have dropped into the bottom half although that doesn't quite tell the whole story. They've played two less matches than their rivals and wins in those games in hand - okay, that's a bit of an if - would elevate them to fourth.

There'll certainly have a freshness edge after last weekend's match was called off after an outbreak of coronavirus in the Newcastle camp.

In terms of team news, Ross Barkley is still out with a hamstring injury.

Wolves one-point favourites

Home advantage makes Wolves the favourites here although 2.47/5 is higher than it would have been for much of last season. Aston Villa are a point higher at 3.412/5 while The Draw is also 3.412/5.

The absent Wolves fans haven't been missing much in terms of goals this season as their five Molineux matches have produced just 11 - six for them and five for the opposition. That's turned into two wins, two draws and an understandable defeat to Manchester City.

Let's spin a stat. Villa have won three times as many away games as champions Liverpool.

Yes, the Reds have just one while Villa have beaten Fulham, Leicester and Arsenal, losing only to West Ham last time (a 2-1 defeat).

That's pretty impressive but Wolves will be a hard nut to crack. They've conceded fewer home goals than anyone and kept eight clean sheets in their last 12 Molineux outings.

Unders favoured

That brings us onto goal counts and there's some contrasting evidence.

Wolves keep the count low while Villa tend to go high. Indeed, seven of Villa's last eight Premier League games have witnessed three or more goals.

The market favours Unders at 1.845/6 but there's certainly a case for Overs at 2.0811/10 if coming at this from a Villa perspective.

As for Both teams to Score, Yes is the 1.865/6 favourite, with No 2.111/10.

Villa have scored in 12 of their last 13 Premier League games which is reassuring for Yes backers.

Same Game Multi market offers best bet

Time for a bet then and I'll head to the Same Game Multi.

Jack Grealish made more of the wrong headlines again during Villa's weekend off so will want to remind everyone what he can do on the pitch.

Villa have played five away games in all comps this season and Grealish has scored in three of them.

Add in two home goals against Liverpool when they were destroying the Reds on the break and he's clearly a counter-attacking threat.

The skipper is 10/3 to score anytime - most likely in the second half when the game opens up - and I'll throw in a pretty safe Under 1.5 First Half goals as my second element.

Three of Wolves' last four home games haven't seen any goals at all before the break and they typically use the opening 45 to work their way into a match.

Jack Grealish to score anytime and Under 1.5 First Half Goals pays 7.56 on the Same Game Multi.

Will a Grealish goal be enough to seal victory? I'm not convinced it will so I'll also have a bet on The Draw at 3.412/5.

Opta Stat

Only Bruno Fernandes (35) and Kevin De Bruyne (28) have created more chances for their teammates this season than Aston Villa's Jack Grealish (26). Meanwhile, among midfielders only Fernandes (11) has been involved in more goals than Grealish so far this term (10 - 5 goals, 5 assists).