West Ham v Newcastle: Magpies' recent shot stats make them great price to win

• Nervy Hammers look vulnerable against big boys

• Newcastle peaking at the right time

• Away win a cracking price and a 9/5 shots bet

Clean sheets vital for nervy Hammers

Looking at West Ham's starting XI against Southampton on Sunday you have to wonder how David Moyes' men are involved in a relegation battle.

But then you see them labour to a 1-0 win over possibly the worst team in the Premier League - they scored with one of just two shots on target - and you have the answer.

The Hammers appear to be lacking in confidence, playing a cagey brand of football strewn with errors, and the home faithful are definitely feeling the nerves.

It's blatantly obvious that the key to West Ham's survival hopes is keeping clean sheets. Remarkably, each of their last 10 victories in all competitions have been secured by winning to nil.

Put another way, if the opposition finds the back of the net then West Ham rarely win. You have to go all the way back to October to find the last time they conceded but still managed a victory.

Moyes' men go into Wednesday night's game unbeaten in six at the London Stadium. However, Aston Villa (9th) are the highest-placed Premier League team they faced in that run and the Hammers are yet to beat a top-eight side on home soil this season.

Magpies aiming to cement top four berth

Newcastle are back to their best and were completely dominant in Sunday's 2-0 win over Manchester United, a result that lifted them to third in the table and well on course for a Top 4 Finish (1/2 on the Betfair Sportsbook).

They were also very impressive - though the 2-1 scoreline didn't reflect it - in beating Nottingham Forest just before the international break, hitting the woodwork twice, having a perfectly good goal chalked off, and registering 15 shots at goal.

They've averaged just below 20 shots per game in their last three outings so it's no surprise to see them travel to the London Stadium on Wednesday night on the back of three straight league wins.

Eddie Howe has been particularly impressed with his team's energy levels and fitness in recent weeks, and he seems to have put together a well-knitted squad that is high on confidence and able to match any side in the Premier League right now.

Away win looks an excellent price

The key difference between these two sides for me is that West Ham's big names and playmakers - the likes of Declan Rice, Jarrod Bowen and Said Benrahma - aren't at the top of their game and playing consistently well, whereas the same isn't true of Newcastle's key men.

Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak have been excellent in recent games, and Allan Saint-Maximin - who was superb against Man United on Sunday - has really started to find his top form again since coming back into the team.

Right now, I just think Newcastle are on another level to West Ham. They have the better players, are in better form, and they're playing with much more confidence than the Hammers.

So I was extremely surprised to see the Magpies trading at 2.26/5 on the Betfair Exchange in the Match Odds market, and I belive that is a price well worth taking.

If you disagree, you can back West Ham to win at 3.7511/4 or the Draw at 3.613/5.

But remember, results over the last six months show that if West Ham concede then they don't win, and I just can't see Newcastle not scoring in this game.

Magpies to shoot on sight

As alluded to earlier, Newcastle have been far from shot shy in recent weeks, but as well as getting plenty of shots away they're also getting a decent number of shots on target too.

In the last three games they've averaged excatly six shots on target, but that doesn't include the perfectly good goal that was chalked off for offside against Forest, and they also hit the woodwork three times in that period.

Interestingly, Newcastle have hit the woodwork 18 times this season, far more than Man City (12) and Arsenal (11).

I appreciate that hitting the woodwork doesn't count as a shot on target but the above stat does tell us how their SOT stats could have been much better with just a tiny bit more luck.

In West Ham's two most recent games against top four-chasing teams they conceded eight shots on target to Man United in the FA Cup and nine against Brighton. So I think a price of 9/5 that Newcastle manage at least six shots on target on Wednesday night is another bet to have.

Having watched West Ham's cagey win over a poor Southampton side on Sunday just hours before Newcastle effectively demolished Manchester United, I'm more than happy to put up an away win as my main bet of the game. I'm confident we'll go close to landing the shots bet too.

So if I was having a Bet Builder then I'd be looking to combine wagers along those lines and add the in-form Guimaraes to have a say too.

In fact, let's push the boat out and go for Guimaraes to score or assist, Newcastle to win, and Newcastle to have 8+ shots on target. That Bet Builder pays out at around 25/1 if successful.

Money back as free bet on the Exchange

You can get your money back as a free bet (up to £10) on the Betfair Exchange if you back Under 2.5 goals between West Ham and Newcastle and the bet loses.

Currently trading at 1.768/11, we have landed 70% of these so far in 2023 (7/10).

So why Under 2.5 at the London Stadium? Well..

• In the Premier League this season, West Ham (7/27 - 26%) and Newcastle (10/27 - 37%) have the two lowest ratios of Over 2.5 goals in their matches of all 20 sides.
• West Ham have conceded 14 times at home this season, the joint-fifth best defence in the Premier League this campaign.
• Newcastle, meanwhile, have conceded just 10 times on the road in the top-flight in 2022-23, only Arsenal (9) have shipped a fewer number this season.
• West Ham are unbeaten in five Premier League games at home, recording three clean sheets in this run.
• Newcastle (0.7) have conceded the fewest number of goals per game in the Premier League this season, whilst also managing a league-high 13 clean sheets this term.
• At least one side has failed to score in 17 of West Ham's 27 Premier League games this season, the highest ratio of any of the 20 top-flight sides (63%).

Make sure you head over to the Exchange here and opt-in to be involved, and if it does lose, your free bet will be credited instantly to use on a host of other football matches across the week!