West Ham v Chelsea: Oppose goals in derby dust-up

• West Ham underperforming their xG

• Chelsea have scored just twice in six

• 28/42 (67%) combined contests have produced Under 2.5

West Ham pick up positive point

Struggling West Ham produced a gritty performance to secure a rare away point and frustrate in-form Newcastle at St James' Park last weekend. The Hammers conceded inside the opening few minutes and could have been 2-0 down following a free-kick before Brazil midfielder Lucas Paqueta equalised just after the half-hour mark.

David Moyes' men had lost seven of their previous 10 Premier League away days, yet Irons fans will have been encouraged by their team's display on Tyneside. West Ham dug deep and showed real resolve with Declan Rice back to his best, Paqueta looked comfortable and creative alongside him, Emerson impressing and Nayef Aguerd finding form at centre-half.

Moyes thought his side's response was "fantastic", but was still unhappy with the way they started the game. He said: "I think we deserve a little bit of credit because we've not been playing so well, but I thought we played very well today. We responded absolutely fantastically to that first goal. I'm really pleased with how the players played overall."

West Ham are hoping to have Gianluca Scamacca available again this weekend but Kurt Zouma, Maxwel Cornet and Thilo Kehrer all remain sidelined.

Chelsea frustrated by Fulham

British record signing Enzo Fernandez made his Chelsea debut but could not help his new side claim only their second win of 2023 as they were held to a 0-0 draw by Fulham at Stamford Bridge last weekend. The Argentine started in midfield just three days after completing a £107m move to the Blues from Benfica and made a solid first impression.

Fernandez curled an effort just wide of the post in the second half; Kai Havertz also went close before the break when his lobbed effort from Hakim Ziyech's superb pass clipped the woodwork before the ball was cleared off the line, while debutant David Datro Fofana had a shot cleared off the line late on after showing great control to wrongfoot the goalkeeper.

But overall, Chelsea did not do enough to earn the win as they again struggled to create real goalscoring chances, finishing the game with just three shots on-target. It took the Blues well over an hour to manage their first effort on-target and Graham Potter's side never completely convinced in the final-third as they again started without a traditional striker.

Potter had made three changes from the side which drew with Liverpool, with Fernandez involved from the off, Mykhailo Mudryk appearing for the first time at Stamford Bridge and fit-again Reece James back in the side. Ben Chilwell and Raheem Sterling made their returns from injury off the bench, whilst Mateo Kovacic is expected back in the squad on Saturday.

Speaking post-match, Potter said: "There was a lot of excitement and positivity from the start, a good atmosphere. The spirit of the players was really good. They worked hard for each other against an organised team. We need time to settle everything down. We were missing the connection, fluidity and confidence that comes from knowing each other."

Hammers can keep Blues at bay

West Ham have lost four of their last five Premier League meetings with Chelsea (W1-D0-L4), including back-to-back defeats against the Blues. However, the Hammers haven't suffered three successive defeats against Chelsea since 2011 and have enjoyed better returns when hosting their West London rivals, posting (W4-D1-L2) across the last seven.

West Ham 3.4549/20 have earned four points from their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous nine (W1-D1-L7). David Moyes' men are looking to go three games unbeaten for only the second time this term; the Hammers have been beaten just once in their past six showdowns and conceded only two goals in that six-game sample.

Chelsea 2.3411/8 won their first three Premier League games under Graham Potter, scoring seven goals in the process. However, the Blues have bagged just two victories from their subsequent 12 (W2-D5-L5), netting just another seven goals. The visitors have played out consecutive 0-0 draws and notched only twice in their past six encounters.

Close and competitive contest expected

Goalscoring has been a big issue for both sides in 2022/23. Only Wolves (15), Everton (16) and Southampton (17) have scored fewer goals than West Ham (18) thus far and the Hammers have netted multiple goals only once in 10 previous tussles with top-half teams. The Irons have scored around 10 goals fewer than their Expected Goals (xG) tally suggests.

Meanwhile, Chelsea (22) have bagged at least 10 goals fewer than any of their top-half rivals this season. The Blues have managed multiple goals just once across their past 12 Premier League outings (at home to Bournemouth) and scored just nine times in their 11 away days overall - in nine of those 11 road trips, Chelsea have netted no more than a solitary strike.

Considering the misfiring nature of the two rivals, I'm happy to support Under 2.5 Goals at 1.768/11. It's proven a profitable formula in 28/42 (67%) of the duos combined contests, including 14/22 (64%) when viewing respective home/away records. Only five of West Ham's 21 tussles have produced 3+ goals whilst just two of Chelsea's past 11 have followed suit.

Punters searching for a bigger-priced alternative may wish to back Under 2.5 Goals and Under 0.5 First-Half Goals at 2.809/5 - eight of Chelsea's most recent 10 EPL match-ups have failed to produce a first-half goal, whilst West Ham have managed to score only nine times before the half-time interval across the whole campaign.