West Brom v Aston Villa: Visitors' away strength can thwart Big Sam revival

West Brom v Aston Villa
Sunday 20th December, kick-off 19:15
Live on BT Sport

Bilic out, Allardyce in. Same result?

Slaven Bilic left West Brom this week with his head held high and a fair amount of grace and nobility considering they had just held a Manchester City side worth £800 million to a 1-1 draw. Maybe the Baggies board thought they should have gone to the Etihad and won. I suspect the die was cast following the 1-5 home defeat to Crystal Palace, but one can't help but feel a little sorry for the 52-year-old Croat.

The best man for the job is obviously Sam Allardyce, and the old firefighting warhorse has been wheeled out again in an attempt to stave off relegation. There isn't much change to their price in the market to go down at 1.444/9, so it will be interesting to monitor Big Sam's progress in relation to how the layers are viewing it.

He has done it before of course with Sunderland and Palace, but it's short term thinking considering there is a real lack of Premier League experience in the team. The appointment reminds of a famous old Noel Coward quote. He once said: "I don't care if they throw beer bottles at me, I'll go."

Allardyce has that sort of resilience.

Smith's Villa in great shape on the road

Aston Villa are turning into something akin to a real stable, top flight club. Currently 11th in the table, manager Dean Smith is probably still wondering how Thursday's game against Burnley ended 0-0. His team were pretty good, and so was Jack Grealish. In fact he was outstanding as he contributed to a team performance that saw them register 15 first-half shots and 27 in total.

For a side averaging two goals per game this season, Burnley really got out of dodge.

The visitors are looking strong too in terms of squad depth, as Douglas Luiz and Matty Cash are available again following suspension. And there's a possibility that midfielder Ross Barkley could also be fit. To have a player of Barkley's pedigree at Villa Park highlights the chasm in the two teams.

Match Odds

On Villa's last two outings, you'd make them a pretty sound bet here wouldn't you? Okay, they didn't beat Burnley, but they should have. Previously they produced an excellent away performance against Wolves to win 0-1, almost a perfect display as they looked comfortable in their 4-3-3 at all times.

And that's Villa's strength - playing away. They have won four of their five games on the road this season which is more than they had managed in their previous 42 away. A points tally which is also higher than the whole of 2019-20.

Backing the away side looks the bet here at 2.0421/20. There could be some momentum with the hosts and their price of 3.8514/5 coming under pressure with the classic "new manager" theory, but Bilic was a likeable sort, so the players might not have forgotten so easily. In fact, those odds are mithered in doubt for me. With Villa, we know we are backing a side that have played their best stuff on the road.

Visitor's knack of clean sheets brings into play Unders

I didn't have much joy with the Under 1.5 bet with Wolves and Chelsea earlier in the week, but it got to 49 minutes at 0-0 so there would have been ample opportunity to trade the price.

Potentially this could be a low-scoring game given that Villa have kept more clean sheets this season (six) than any other PL team. Matching up that impressive figure with a less than stellar five goals in their last 10 matches for the Baggies, the Under 2.5 looks fair at 2.0421/20, especially as the hosts don't exactly scream goals, and won't as Allardyce will look to keep it tight at the back first and foremost as he hasn't really got the players to be expansive.

If you fancy something a little braver again, the Under 1.5 can be backed at 4.1031/10.

I'd like to mention Conor Gallagher for the hosts, as I was really impressed with him at Manchester United. He's a busy midfielder, and I like his fearless style for someone so young.

Same Game Multi Options

If Villa can replicate the sort of display and shift they put in against Wolves (winning 0-1), then the Same Game Multi option of backing the visitors at 19/20 with the Under 2.5 at 11/10 pays a pretty impressive 4.93. And of course it gives you the 0-1 and 0-2 options rather than just play on the Correct Score.

West Brom have been involved in three out of six on the Under 2.5 and have the lowest xG total in the top flight at just 0.6.