There are good reasons to side with Ismaila Sarr to open the scoring and for Watford to win the game against a struggling Newcastle, says Jamie Pacheco...
"Another reason is their excellent home form. They’ve won 13 of their last 15 on home soil and even though that obviously includes a load of matches in The Championship, it’s still an extremely strong record."
Sarr and Sissoko key to the cause
Watford will be pretty pleased with their efforts so far this season.
Yes, they've lost three and only won two, but six points is a decent return and they'll be pleased that one of those wins was against a relegation candidate in Norwich.
They beat the Canaries 3-1 with Emmanuel Dennis opening the scoring and Ismaila Sarr scoring two in the last half hour to secure that priceless 3-1 away win.
It's been all Sarr this season. He's scored three of their five goals in the league, he's created the most chances (9) for the team, had the most shots (9) and completed the most dribbles. Stats from Opta.
No wonder there were plenty of bids for him in the summer. No wonder Watford said no to them all.
Moussa Sissoko didn't have things all his own way at Tottenham despite regularly featuring for France while he was there. But this may be a good move for him. He's too good a player to not be in action every week and could provide the sort of muscle and running the team needs, if they're to stay in the division.
Plenty for Steve Bruce to think about
It's been a disastrous start to the season for Newcastle, with just two draws to show for their efforts.
Last week they managed a 1-1 draw with Leeds and before that they secured a 2-2 stalemate at home to Southampton.
They're badly missing the injured Callum Wilson, one of the very few class players in the squad. He's a proven goalscorer in this division and in his absence, they might really struggle for goals.
Joelington's time at Newcastle has been a story of failure and good though Allan Saint-Maximin is, he's not the sort of player to be consistently effective over a long period of time. At least he hasn't been in the past.
This could be a long old season for them.
Plenty of reasons to think Watford are a bet at odds of 2.3411/8. The Magpies are the side that Watford most enjoy playing against in the Premier League, having beaten them in five of their 12 encounters. The 19 points they've taken off them is more than against any other side in this division.
Another reason is their excellent home form. They've won 13 of their last 15 on home soil and even though that obviously includes a load of matches in The Championship, it' still an extremely strong record.
Add their decent form and Newcastle's lack of it and it's a price worth taking.
It's 3.55 on the visitors but history isn't on their side. They have just one win in their last nine away at Watford, losing four and drawing four. The stalemate is 3.55/2.
I'm not normally the biggest fan of the first goalscorer market.
Not only can your bet go up in smoke within a couple of minutes but it's highly frustrating being on a 10.0 shot who misses when he should have scored.
But there are good reasons why I'm taking a punt on Sarr at 7.0. As stated already, he's scored 60% of their goals so far this season and has been incredibly busy even when he's not scoring. It's not a bad thing to be backing a player who isn't afraid to shoot on sight.
I also think this could be quite a tight game with goals at a premium which is probably what Newcastle's gameplan will be.
And with that I mind, I'd much rather be on Sarr at 7.0 for first goalscorer than 3.39/4 on him to score anytime.
Here are the number of corners Watford games have had so far.
Watford games: 6, 9, 13, 14, 12.
So that's three out of five Watford games that have gone over 9.5 corners and at 6/10 we can make that the first part of our Bet Builder.
And even though I think Watford will win and that Sarr might score, the 7/2 about Saint-Maximin scoring isn't a bad price at all given he'll be their focal point in attack.
The double comes to 6.92.
JAMIE'S 2021/22 P AND L
Points Wagered: 6
Points returned: 3.72
P and L: -2.28 pts
GET A £5 FREE BET ON MULTIPLES - EVERY DAY!
Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples or Bet Builders. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.