Watford v Leicester: Foxes can show attacking bite

Andrew Atherley
14 May 2022
3 min read

Brendan Rodgers' Leicester side have performed well against the lower teams

Watford vs Leicester City
Sun 15 May, 14:00

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Andrew Atherley says Leicester can score a clear-cut win over relegated Watford on Sunday...

"Even in this below-par season, the Foxes have a W6 D3 L1 record against the current bottom six, which includes a 4-2 home win over Watford on November 28."

Back Leicester off -1 on the Asian handicap at 3.185/40

Watford looking to next season

Having been relegated last weekend with three games to play, Watford moved quickly to secure their manager for next season's Championship campaign with the controversial appointment of Rob Edwards.

League Two champions Forest Green Rovers were angry at Edwards' departure immediately after their title success, saying his negotiations with Watford had taken place behind their backs.

Roy Hodgson will remain in charge at Vicarage Road until the end of the season, when his contract expires, and that leaves Watford in a state of limbo as they await a change of league and manager.

This is their final home game of the season, followed by a visit to Chelsea to end their stay in the Premier League next weekend.

Hodgson made seven changes in midweek once relegation was confirmed, some of which were enforced, and players such as Ismaila Sarr, Josh King and Emmanuel Dennis may not feature again this season.

Hassane Kamara is back from suspension and could replace Adam Masina at left-back.

Leicester coming off a win

Leicester's season effectively ended with last week's defeat against Roma in the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League.

In the wake of that disappointment Brendan Rodgers' side lost 2-1 at home to Everton but then bounced back with a 3-0 home win over bottom club Norwich on Wednesday night.

That leaves them 10th in the Premier League after an underwhelming season on the domestic front.

Rodgers could name an unchanged side, although defender Wesley Fofana is expected to be available again.

Watford

Leicester City

Chelsea 2 1 Watford
Watford 1 5 Leicester City
Watford 0 0 Everton
Crystal Palace 1 0 Watford
Watford 1 2 Burnley
Manchester City 5 1 Watford

Leicester City 4 1 Southampton
Chelsea 1 1 Leicester City
Watford 1 5 Leicester City
Leicester City 3 0 Norwich City
Leicester City 1 2 Everton
Roma 1 0 Leicester City

Watford vs Leicester City Sunday 15 May, 14:00

Full stats

Attitude a key factor

Watford's appointment of Edwards emerged shortly before their home match against Everton on Wednesday, which ended in a goalless draw.

That at least halted a club record run of 11 successive home defeats and Hodgson described it as a "sterling effort by the players", adding that he had been expecting a far worse performance.

It still wasn't a good performance, however, as Watford did not have a shot on target. Everton, by contrast, had 21 shots in total, with five on target, and probably should have taken the three points.

On that evidence it would be hard to say Watford might play with some freedom now that their fate is sealed and the pressure of battling relegation has gone.

Watford's record under Hodgson is W2 D3 L11, with all but one of their points gained against teams currently lying 12th or below. The exception was a goalless draw away to Manchester United.

Leicester should win if they show up with the right attitude. They had that in front of their home crowd against Norwich and a similar high score could be on the cards if they bring anything like the attacking form they are capable of.

Even in this below-par season, the Foxes have a W6 D3 L1 record against the current bottom six, which includes a 4-2 home win over Watford on November 28. There was a similar result just over a month later when Leicester hosted Watford in the third round of the FA Cup, winning 4-1.

Leaky home defence

Leicester have scored two or more goals in six of their 10 league games against the lower-placed teams, plus in that cup match, and also six of the matches have had over 2.5 goals (seven out of 11 if the cup game is included).

Watford have had 67% over 2.5 goals at home (12 out of 18), with Wednesday's goalless draw with Everton the first match in six at Vicarage Road with under 2.5 goals.

There was some sign that defensive solidity might be building in Hodgson's first few weeks in charge, but since the start of March his side have conceded at least twice in eight of their 10 games and six of those matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Leicester to win with over 2.5 match goals has to be worth considering at 3.1511/5.

A similar bet on a decent scoring away win is Leicester off -1 on the Asian handicap at 3.185/40, which is a winning bet if they win by at least two goals, and that is the selection.

Opta Stat

Leicester's 107 Premier League games played on Sundays have produced on average 3.3 goals, with the Foxes scoring 177 and conceding 175. Of the 103 occasions of a team playing at least 50 games on a specific day of the week in the competition, Leicester on Sunday has the highest average goals-per-game. Over 2.5 goals is 1.845/6.