Watford v Aston Villa: Hornets to create buzz on Premier League return

Watford aiming to defy drop

Watford return to the Premier League after one season away, having finished runners-up in the Championship last season.

The Hornets picked up the pace once Xisco Munoz took charge in December, replacing Vladimir Ivic, and his structured approach was key to their promotion push.

Ismaila Sarr is the star player, having already proved a threat to top defences in his previous Premier League season, and Xisco has added more striking options with the arrival of Josh King (another with proven Premier League quality) and Emmanuel Dennis (more of an unknown quantity from Club Brugge).

Imran Louza, a £10m arrival from Nantes, is the key addition in midfield, while Danny Rose from Spurs brings plenty of big-match experience to the defence.

As usual, the three promoted clubs head the relegation betting and Watford are narrow favourites at 2.021/1.

For more optimistic backers, they are 3.412/5 to be the top promoted team.

Life after Jack for Villa

Villa start a new era without Jack Grealish as they attempt to build on last season's progress, which took them to 11th having finished 17th in their first campaign back in the Premier League.

Dean Smith was keen to get most of his business done before the start of the season, starting with the club record £30m signing of Emi Buendia from Norwich. Grealish's departure puts the pressure on Buendia to provide the creative spark, although his competitive debut looks set to be delayed by a hip problem.

The other marquee signing is striker Danny Ings from Southampton and he looks set to take his place as the attacking spearhead.

Smith has a number of other doubts, however, with Ollie Watkins troubled by a thigh injury and new signing Leon Bailey in isolation. Bertrand Traore, Trezeguet and Douglas Luiz are also out.

Ashley Young, who at the age of 36 has returned to the club 10 years after leaving for Manchester United, is in contention to start on the left side.

Villa's level hard to judge

Munoz's overall record in charge of Watford is W18 D3 L5 but the key figures might be the W12 D0 L1 at home, which are even more impressive considering the drop-off in home form for many teams in the crowd-less pandemic period.

Eleven of Munoz's 12 home wins were to nil, which emphasises the high level of organisation he instilled in the Hornets. A good level of home form would give his side a chance of avoiding the drop, although as a general rule it is a strong away record that is a better indicator of a promoted team's survival prospects.

Villa, like so many Premier League teams, were better on the road than at home last season as the overall proportion of away wins soared to 40% (compared with 34% in the last full season with crowds). Their away win percentage was higher than the average at 47% (W9 D3 L7).

Smith's side were also strong against the teams that finished below them last season with a record of W8 D5 L5. On that basis, with Watford expected to be below them this season, Villa deserve to be favourites here at 2.466/4.

The question, though, is how much will Villa miss Grealish? There is a good body of evidence from last season that he had a huge influence on results, as their win rate slumped to 21% when he was absent for three months from mid-February.

The win rate was 54% with Grealish in the team, which leaves a big gap to close if Villa are going to be comfortable around mid-table again this season.

Given the form doubts over Villa and their injury issues, plus Xisco's excellent home record, the hosts have a fair chance of upsetting the odds here. The selection is Watford on draw no bet at 2.47/5.

Another Xisco shutout?

An option at bigger odds is a Watford win to nil at 5.79/2 given their strong record in that department under Xisco.

That will be hard to replicate in the Premier League but they have reasonable prospects here against a Villa side adjusting to life after Grealish and with high-fee attackers Buendia and Watkins on the injury list.

The goals expectation for Villa is lower without Grealish after they scored nil or one in 10 of their 14 matches during his three-month absence last season.

Opta Stat

Watford have won their last nine home league games, their best ever home winning streak in their Football League history. They've won each of their last seven league matches at Vicarage Road without conceding - the last team to have a longer run of consecutive home league wins while keeping a clean sheet each time in England's top four tiers was Chelsea in 2010 (9). Watford are 3.412/5 to win.