Tottenham v Nottingham Forest: Back Son to fire Spurs to thrilling win

• Spurs' last seven PL home wins have seen them concede

• Forest leaking goals and conceding corners

• Spurs star Son in great form

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Tottenham v Nottingham Forest
Sunday 07 April, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Spurs still on track for Champions League return

There's a good chance that the Premier League's top five will all qualify for the expanded Champions League, as England's coefficient looks set to trump the likes of Germany and France.

On that basis, Tottenham look set to return to European football's VIP club, not least because of Manchester United's extraordinary collapse at Chelsea on Thursday night. That 4-3 loss has left the Red Devils nine points behind Tottenham with eight games left.

Stamping the Champions League ticket would be a huge achievement for manager Ange Postecoglou, who has transformed the style of the team and the vibe of the club in double-quick time. Admittedly he had a low base after Antonio Conte's soporific football and public meltdown, but making fans fall in love with watching Spurs is a bigger deal that it's sometimes given credit for.

If you examine the xG data, Spurs are perhaps slightly ahead of where they should be. Understat.com's Expected Points model would have the Lilywhites seventh in the standings, and they suggest that they are overperforming compared to their Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against.

To an extent, that overperformance is largely explicable. Goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario has the best Post-Shot xG differential in the league (he is saving a lot of shots that the data models suggest he shouldn't be saving), and at the other end quietly inspirational captain Heung-Min Son has scored 15 league goals from an xG figure of 9.2.

That's not unusual for Son, who outperforms his xG season upon season. He has scored more league goals than expected in six of his last seven campaigns.

Brennan Johnson should recover from a slight knock in time to feature against his former club. Ryan Sessegnon and Manor Solomon are both out.

Forest must build on Fulham win

Nottingham Forest produced an electrifying display in midweek, as they swept aside a strong Fulham side 3-1.

Manager Nuno was rewarded for an attacking team selection, and Morgan Gibbs-White underlined his status as the team's most valuable and effective player. It was a glimpse of what Forest are capable of, but Nuno has called for consistency. It feels like a fragile spark that has to be protected before it can be blown out.

While Forest do have plenty of attacking talent (striker Chris Wood has 11 Premier League goals, while Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi are both potential match-winners), they do also give up too many goals. The East Midlands side have leaked 53 times in the top flight this term, and they are particularly vulnerable in dead-ball situations, having conceded 19 goals from set plays.

Forest's away form is a big concern too. Away from the electrifying roar of the City Ground faithful, the Tricky Trees have managed just two road wins in the league, and the last of those was on Boxing Day at Newcastle. They rarely avoid defeat away to the big hitters - this term Forest have lost at Arsenal, Liverpool, Aton Villa, Manchester United and Manchester City.

Nuno may name an unchanged side after that excellent win over Fulham. He is without forceful striker Taiwo Awoniyi, while Willy Boly and Nuno Tavares are also on the sidelines.

Tottenham to win and concede

Spurs have won seven of their last eight home matches in the league, but have conceded a goal in all seven of those victories. I expect Forest to find the net here, so it makes sense to back Tottenham to win and both teams to score at 6/42.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

We can boost that price to 3.14107/50 if we throw in Over 8.5 Corners. Tottenham's games average 11.9 corners in the Premier League this season, while Forest's matches average just above ten. Indeed, Forest have given up over 200 corners, well above the league average, with only two clubs having conceded more.

Son to strike

Spurs skipper Heung-Min Son remains not only one of the nicest men in the game, but also one of its best finishers. The South Korean has racked up 24 goals in all competitions for club and country, and he has found the net in five of his last seven appearances. If you want to purely focus on the Premier League, Son has netted in three of his last four games.

I'm happy to back Son to score at any time at 11/102.11 on the Sportsbook. If you wait until nearer the match, you might get a better price on the Betfair Exchange.

Now read Kev's Bundesliga preview here!

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