Jose Mourinho's Spurs take on Graham Potter's Brighton on Sunday evening and Steve Rawlings thinks the visitors are up against it with Harry Kane and Son Heung-min in fine form...
"As good as their record is away from home, it’s very hard to see Brighton getting anything at all out of Sunday’s game. Spurs at 1.684/6 are a fair price."
Tottenham v Brighton
Sunday November 1, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Box Office
Spurs in search of first home win
After their incredible collapse at home to West Ham a fortnight ago, when the Hammers came from 3-0 down with a little over 10 minutes to play to claim a point, Spurs returned to winning ways against Burnley at Turf Moor last week when Harry Kane and Son Heung-min combined for a ninth time this season to snatch all three points with a hard-fought 1-0 win.
Although only six games into the new season, that's already the joint-most for Spurs in a single campaign in the Premier League, alongside Teddy Sheringham and Darren Anderson (nine in both 1992-93 and 1994-95) and Teddy Sheringham and Chris Armstrong (nine in 1995-96). Kane has already recorded eight assists and that's the most he's ever provided in a single season. They really are a deadly combination but can they carry Tottenham all the way to a title?
So impressive have Tottenham been since their 1-0 defeat to table-toppers, Everton, on the opening week, that they've already been matched at just 7.87/1 to win the Premier League and with pre-season favourites, Manchester City, and defending champions, Liverpool, both unconvincing so far this term, they go into this weekend as solid 9.08/1 chances to win the title.
The highlight of the season so far was their 6-1 demolition of Manchester United at Old Trafford and they've been better on the road than they have at home this season. In fact, they're yet to win at home this season. In addition to their loss to Everton, and the 3-3 draw with West Ham, they were also held at home by Newcastle (1-1) at the end of September.
Dunk a big miss for the Seagulls
Like Spurs, Brighton have performed better away from home of late and their 4-2 defeat to Everton at Goodison Park at the start of October is their only defeat in their last 10 away games in the Premier League (W3 D6). That was there only defeat on the road since they lost 3-1 at Bournemouth way back in January and they've managed to find the net in 12 of their last 15 Premier League away games.
Also in common with Sunday's hosts, the Seagulls are in search of their first home win of the season, following defeats to Chelsea and Manchester United and a very poor 1-1 draw with West Brom last weekend, when they only managed to muster five shots in 90 minutes. Only three of which were on target. They'll be pleased to get back on the road after that performance but with their captain and influential defender, Lewis Dunk, suspended after his late sending off at Crystal Palace two weeks ago, they'll be fearing the deadly duo of Son and Kane.
Spurs can get back to winning ways
Despite being the odds-on favourites at around 1.51/2, Spurs were beaten 1-0 by Antwerp in the Europa League on Thursday night and that's a bit of a concern.
Tottenham manager, Jose Mourinho, was in an edgy mood afterwards, dishing out veiled threats in the direction of the players he replaced at half time - Dele Alli, Steven Bergwijn, Giovani lo Celso and Carlos Vinicius.
"I would like to have made 11 changes at half-time. I don't want to analyse individuals. I don't like to do that.
"We have a big squad with lots of good players. It's my responsibility to give them opportunities to play and catch the chance with both hands and be in condition to ask for more. And tonight my future choices are going to be very easy."
That all sounds quite ominous for Alli in particular but I suspect there'll be a reaction on Sunday and the Seagulls could be meeting the Lilywhites at just the wrong time.
Tottenham have won each of their last four home league games against Brighton (including all three in the Premier League) and they've won each of their last five at home against them in all competitions. And given they've lost just one of their last 12 Premier League matches, it's very hard to fancy the visitors.
Brighton have failed to win in seven Premier League games without the all-important Dunk in their side and as good as their record is away from home, it's very hard to see them getting anything at all out of Sunday's game. Spurs at 1.684/6 are a fair price.
Son can strike again
Looking at last season's stats, Yes in the Both Teams to Score market landed in 53% of Spurs' home games and in 58% of Brighton's away games. And if you'd have backed Yes in the 12 Premier League games so far this season involving these two, you'd have been paid out nine times. Yes is trading at around 1.758/11 and that isn't too short according to those stats.
The case for backing Over in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market at an even shorter price isn't quite as strong. There have been three or more goals in only three of Tottenham's first six Premier League games and although there were at least three goals in the first four games involving Brighton, each of their last two Premier League fixtures have ended 1-1. Looking back to last season, there were three or more goals scored in 53% of Spurs' home games and in 53% of Brighton's away games.
After just six Premier League matches, Son Heung-min is the top scorer in the division with eight and with Dunk missing for the visitors, there's every chance he can add to his tally on Sunday. Odds-against on him finding the net is fair and Son to score at any time and Spurs to win pays 2.78 on the Same Game Multi.
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Staked: 13 pts
Returned: 7.78 pts
P/L: -5.22 pts
3pts Tottenham @ 1.684/6