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Tottenham v Brentford: Overs the value angle of attack

Mark O'Haire
20 May 2023
3:00 min read

Eight of Tottenham's last 10 matches have produced three goals or more

Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford
Sat 20 May, 12:30

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Tottenham entertain Brentford on the penultimate weekend of the Premier League. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is expecting an entertaining London derby on Saturday afternoon.

Spurs matches average a huge 3.44 goals
Brentford possess plenty of threat
May statistically-proven to be highest-scoring month

Tottenham top-four dream extinguished

Tottenham's feint Champions League qualification hopes were extinguished last week as Spurs were beaten 2-1 at Aston Villa.

Ryan Mason's side can no longer finish higher than fifth and were guilty once again of giving their opponents a head-start, conceding the opening goal inside the first 10 minutes for the fourth occasion in five fixtures.

Spurs were flat and uninspiring and offered little in terms of an attacking threat. In fact, Tottenham failed to even register a single attempt on goal in the first half and only managed a Harry Kane consolation from the penalty spot.

Son Heung-min was frustrated by the offside flag, while Richarlison managed just nine touches before he was substituted.

Mason was understandably unimpressed by his side's efforts. He said, "It's disappointing. If you want to be a big team and compete at the top of the table, you cannot give teams a goal head-start.

You have to earn everything. We understand it was a big game [in terms of qualifying for Europe] and I'm obviously very disappointed in the outcome."

On a day of few positives for the visitors, substitute Yves Bissouma at least offered a midfield presence on his first appearance since 5 February. Eric Dier, Hugo Lloris, Rodrigo Bentancur all remain sidelined.

Brentford batter West Ham

Brentford's memorable Premier League season continued last weekend as the Bees bagged a comfortable 2-0 win over West Ham to secure their first top-half finish in the top-flight since 1938.

Thomas Frank's team did the business without injured 20-goal leading scorer Ivan Toney with Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa each getting on the scoresheet.

With West Ham prioritising their Europa Conference League semi-final, making seven changes to their starting XI, Brentford showed no mercy.

The Bees were the dominant force throughout the contest and were disappointed not to secure top honours by a more handsome margin. Mbeumo, Wissa and Ben Mee all going close to adding further goals.

Speaking post-match, Frank said: "It was the most convincing 2-0 win I've seen a long, long time. We were completely dominant in all aspects.

We should have scored at least two more goals. We've now ticked off a top-half finish, which is an incredible achievement when everyone had spoken about second-season syndrome."

Toney is expected to be fit enough to feature on Saturday but Christian Norgaard and Pontus Jansson remain on the treatment table.

Spurs unappealling odds-on favourites

Tottenham Hotspur

Brentford

Tottenham Hotspur 1 3 Brentford
Aston Villa 2 1 Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur 1 0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 4 3 Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur 2 2 Manchester United
Newcastle United 6 1 Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur 1 3 Brentford
Brentford 2 0 West Ham United
Liverpool 1 0 Brentford
Brentford 2 1 Nottingham Forest
Chelsea 0 2 Brentford
Brentford 1 1 Aston Villa

Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford Saturday 20 May, 12:30

Full stats

Tottenham have suffered a solitary reverse in their last nine league matches with Brentford (W4-D4-L1) - that defeat came way back in 1948 when both teams were involved in the second-tier.

Curiously, the home side in this fixture has lost just once in the last nine league renewals (W4-D4-L1) with the Bees posting W0-D1-L3 in their last four visits to Spurs.

Tottenham 1.9110/11 have lost 13 Premier League games this term, shipping 59 goals - Spurs last lost more matches in a single campaign in 2008-09, while they last conceded more in 2007-08.

Ryan Mason's men have W12-D1-L5 as hosts, however, Spurs have returned W3-D1-L4 when welcoming top-half teams, conceding twice or more in five of those fixtures.

Brentford 4.2016/5 have W3-D1-L1 coming into this clash, losing narrowly at Liverpool. Seven of the Bees' nine league defeats arrived on the road and the guests have W1-D2-L5 on their travels at top-half teams.

Even so, Thomas Frank's team arrive unbeaten in their last eight Premier League London derby matches, winning each of their last three capital contests.

Overs the obvious selection

Tottenham's Premier League games have seen a huge 124 goals scored this season (an average of 3.44 goals per-game) with only Arsenal's matches (125) producing more.

Eight of Spurs' last 10 tussles have produced Over 2.5 Goals 1.824/5 profit and a repeat holds plenty of appeal on Saturday considering the circumstances.

Tottenham have managed to get on the scoresheet in all bar four league outings thus far with a chunky 61% of matches paying-out for Both Teams To Score 1.748/11 backers.

The hosts have kept a solitary shutout in 11 Premier League dates, and have silenced only one of their eight top-half visitors this term.

Brentford's away days aren't renowned for high-scoring affairs, although the Bees have leaked a minimum of three goals in half of their eight trips to top-half opposition, with the bulk of their best defensive efforts arriving against the lesser lights.

Still, Thomas Frank's team have notched in 20 of their past 25 EPL encounters and possess plenty of threat.

We're also now well into the month of May, statistically-proven to be the highest scoring month of Premier League action.

Since 2014/15 (and excluding rescheduled football during COVID times), May averages a bulbous 2.95 goals per-game in the EPL. it's a trend repeated across the continent's major leagues and strengthens our case for a goal-filled game.

Back Over 2.5 Goals

1.82

Mark's 2022/23 Profit/Loss

Staked: 79 pts

Returned: 86.30 pts

P/L: +7.30 pts

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