Jamie Pacheco is keeping it simple with his bets for this early Sunday KO and he has also found a quirky corners bet too good to turn down...
"So we think that the Saints should win this game and we’ve been harping on about Danny Ings all preview. If you take the 8/11 on the home win and the 4/6 that Ings adds to his enviable tally of Premier League goals here and thanks to a same-game multi-bet, we come to 2.33."
Southampton v West Brom
Sunday October 4, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
All about Ings
Are we set for another season of Southampton keeping things tight at the back, working hard in midfield and letting Danny Ings do the rest upfront?
After a 1-0 loss at Palace and that crazy 5-2 home defeat where Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane made history (let's not forget Ings got two in that one), it was a more familiar scoreline last time out, a 1-0 win at Burnley. No prizes for guessing who got the goal.
If there's one criticism of this side, it's that they may lack some creativity in midfield. James Ward-Prowse is a decent passer but there isn't really anyone who can go on a mazy run or play a killer through-ball, so it's often up to forwards like Che Adams or Moussa Djenepo to drop a bit deeper and try and make something happen. I think they'll be fine as long as Ings is around to put away one of the few chances they create every match, but they may really struggle if they lose him to injury.
He's not exactly a star but they could do with Nathan Redmond returning from injury.
Tough season ahead for Baggies
This could be a really tough season for West Brom where they're pretty much heading for the drop by late January. If that sounds a bit dramatic, consider that they've conceded 11 goals in the league in three matches and a further two in midweek at home to Brentford in the EFL Cup, a match they ended up losing on penalties, though that could well be a blessing in disguise.
What was really somewhat inexcusable was that 3-3 draw last week. All credit to them for going 3-0 up against Chelsea's big-spenders within 27 minutes but at this (or any other) level, that's only half the job done.
Go in search of that killer fourth goal, shut up shop and waste time, pass it around in midfield to take the stuffing out of your opponents. Anything goes but you need to make sure you get the job done. If you can't win from a position of being 3-0 up at home, then when are you going to win?
It's 8/11 on the Saints in the match odds market and that looks about right to me. If anything, you could argue that's not a bad price at all because of two Opta stats in particular.
The first one is that they've now won their last three meetings at home against WBA, the second is that the Saints are now on a run of eight straight wins against newly-promoted sides, which is pretty impressive indeed. It's 11/4 that run comes to and with a draw and 7/2 that West Brom find a way to win. That last one looks one to avoid given the Baggies' problems at the back.
Southampton don't get that many corners at home. Last season in 19 games at St Mary's they got to six corners on just seven occasions, so in just under one in three times. They did admittedly get six, nine and nine in the games against the promoted sides last year but that alone doesn't convince me that they all of a sudden get a lot more against teams who have just come up.
It's still under one in three that they get to six against PL sides at home and given that I very much doubt that WBA will get to the magic mark of six, given they've had two, three and one in their games so far and it's worth a punt on 'Neither' in the Race to Six corners market, at 5/2.
So we think that the Saints should win this game and we've been harping on about Danny Ings all preview. If you take the 8/11 on the home win and the 4/6 that Ings adds to his enviable tally of Premier League goals here and thanks to a same-game multi-bet, we come to 2.33.
Given that he's by far the likeliest scorer by a country mile and that's not a bad route to backing the hosts at considerably better than even money.
JAMIE PACHECO'S 2020-21 PREMIER LEAGUE P AND L
Points wagered: 4
Points Returned: 2.8
P and L: -1.2