Southampton v Manchester City: Saints to make City stutter again

Southampton v Manchester City
Saturday 19 December, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime Video

Saints soaring

Southampton have won seven of their last 11 Premier League games, losing only one. They head into this home game sitting a lofty third in the Premier League table.

Their mid-table visitors have just two wins in their last six, while in all competitions they've tasted victory just once in four away matches, scoring just one goal.

Yet the win market has Saints at 7.06/1 and City at 1.528/15.

It is only the visitors' name and reputation which is producing those prices; form is being given too little weight.

It is quite a run Ralph Hasenhuttl's side are on.

Specifically at St Mary's, where fans will be present on Saturday, they've scored at least twice in every game so far this season, while they've also kept four clean sheets out of six at home.

Theo Walcott has slotted in well since his arrival from Everton, while Danny Ings is fit - and scoring - once again. In midfield, Oriol Romeu is making the most of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg's departure, fully justifying his recall as a regular starter, while at the back Jannik Vestergaard is winning plenty of plaudits for his no-nonsense approach.

Of course, this will be a test but almost certainly not the same test it was 24 months ago when City were on their way to back-to-back titles.

Goals a problem for City

There seems to be a widespread theory that City will be back walloping in the goals again soon. Even Pep Guardiola appears to have signed up to that, continually praising his under-performing men for creating chances. "We are there, we just can't score," was his increasingly-familiar verdict after Tuesday's 1-1 draw with West Brom.

But with Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus failing to deliver on a regular basis, the need for Sergio Aguero to start is becoming greater by the day. So, after three appearances as a substitute in recent weeks, perhaps he will be in the starting XI here for the first time in nearly two months.

But even if the Argentine does start, is he going to be properly match sharp? It's open to question.

City haven't been purring as we had become accustomed to and even though the expected goals figures show Guardiola has a point - they 'should' have scored 22 rather than 18, according to xG - they certainly don't look as threatening without the likes of Leroy Sane and David Silva, both capable of unlocking even the tightest defence.

Back hosts to deny City

At least their own backline has improved - just one goal has been conceded in the last seven - but I still feel Southampton are overpriced here.

The way I prefer to back them is at 2.8815/8 in the double-chance market, which also gets the draw on side.

It is effectively laying City.

With City having won only five of 12 in the league - none against teams currently above them - this looks tempting enough.

Tight contest in store?

Saints won this fixture last season when City dominated the ball and missed chances. Something similar would not be such a surprise this time around.

The result in July was 1-0 and City's profligacy of late could bring under 2.5 goals into play at 2.466/4.

That bet has actually landed in seven of City's last nine matches in all competitions. Backing that outcome blind would not have been wise in recent seasons but during that recent run it's been very profitable.

Corner a profit

There's a potential bet in the corners market - namely over 6.5 City corners at 17/20.

They've managed 13-8-12-8 in their four visits to St Mary's under Guardiola, enjoying possession percentage figures of 74-77-70-59.

The visitors will again likely dominate the ball and given they average 7.33 corners in an away game this season, over 6.5 may well appeal to those who do subscribe to that 'City will bounce back' theory.

Christmas card for Romeu

However, rather than back City corners, for my second bet I'm instead keen for another delve into the 'to be booked' market where Oriol Romeu looks a prime candidate.

The Spaniard loves a tackle, as shown by the league stats which show him way out in front in terms of tackles made this season.

While he's not so high in terms of fouls committed, he's still in the top 20 and has already collected four cards this term in his 13 games, adding to his long history of bookings.

Another here will give him Boxing Day off through suspension. It would also be his fifth in 10 starts against City.

The man with the whistle is none other than Mike Dean, the strictest in card terms in two of the last three seasons and currently running third in this season's cards-per-game list. Last weekend he dished out 11.

Romeu has been booked in three of the last five games he's started with Dean in charge.

I know 13/8 won't be a price for everyone but there's much to suggest it will land.

Opta fact

Southampton have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League home games, scoring 16 goals in total in that run. Saints' previous 16 league goals at St Mary's had come over a period of 16 games.

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