City have dropped points in just four of their 18 top-flight matches this season while they travel to the south coast on a ridiculously good run of 12 straight Premier League victories.
Notably, their home and away records are identical: played 11, won nine, drawn one, lost one. In that sense, City offer more value in road games when their price is slightly bigger.
Their next two Premier League fixtures are home to Brentford and away to Norwich so a victory here would leave them in great position to go on and extend their sequence of PL wins to 15 before a tougher task when they host Tottenham.
City dominant but take note of warning signs
Anyone who took very short odds on City winning the first Premier League meeting will surely be put off going in again at 1.292/7.
Another Draw is 6.86/1 while Southampton to pull off a shock win is 12.011/1.
Looking at past head-to-heads, Man City have won eight of the last 10 although there are a couple of stats that raise red flags.
First, City have failed to score in two of their last four games against Saints while Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven at home. That's their best run at St Mary's in over five years.
Southampton certainly deserve respect but so does the fact that City have won their last 12 Premier League games by an aggregate of 34-7 since the surprise 2-0 home defeat to Crystal Palace.
Pro City backers will need to go to -2 on the handicaps to get an odds-against price. That's 3.052/1. City -1 is 1.814/5.
Both teams to Score is virtually a pick 'em and it's tempting to back 'Yes' at 1.9520/21. Southampton are scoring goals but haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 matches. The counter argument is City having the tightest defence in the Premier League.
Scorer markets look best
My best guess of the scoreline would be City winning by one or two goals but both are still odds-on on the handicaps so I'll swerve that method of attack.
Instead, there look to be better options in the scorer markets.
After a bit of a stop-start run, Kevin De Bruyne appears to be in full flow now and scored a superb winner in the 1-0 victory over Chelsea last weekend.
All roads appear to point to KDB in this fixture. He's scored an impressive nine goals in his last 14 Premier League starts while he's laid on an assist in all three matches he's started at St Mary's.
The common view is that De Bruyne assists more than he scores and that's correct over his career. However, it's flipped this season. He's netted seven times but assisted just three (the same as Ruben Dias for example).
The prices don't reflect that, with an anytime goal 2.8815/8 on the Sportsbook and an assist 2.111/10. I'll obviously play the former.
Joao Cancelo, meanwhile, has eight assists to De Bruyne's three and yet the Spaniard is 3.55/2 to lay on another goal.
He's bound to be in advanced positions for most of the contest so I'll also back him to rack up yet another assist.
If you want to combine both on the Bet Builder, that pays just over 8.07/1.
Opta stat
As well as having the tightest defence in the Premier League this season with just 13 goals conceded, Manchester City have also shipped the lowest ratio of their goals before half-time this term - just two of their 13 goals conceded have come before half-time (15%).
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Staked: 50.5pts Returned: 36.07pts P/L: -14.43pts
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1pt Kevin De Bruyne to Score at 2.8815/8 1pt Joao Cancelo to Assist at 3.55/2
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