Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at St Mary's, comfortable Brighton win and more

• Sorry Leicester to lose tamely again

• Southampton and Villa to serve up goals

• Arsenal likely to edge Brentford

Betfair Saturday Superboost

Aston Villa' January  Transfer Window signing Marco Asensio has enjoyed a fine start at his new club, becoming one of Villa's key goalscoring threats.

The Spaniard has registered 11 shots on target in his last seven games, and on Saturday, against the Premier League's bottom club Southampton you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 2/51.40) to have at least one shot on target.

To take advantage of this latest Betfair Superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Brighton v Leicester (15:00)

If Southampton are the worst team in the Premier League then Leicester City must be the second worst. Second bottom and 15 points from safety with just 21 points to play for, only four wins all season, 22 defeats, it's just a matter of when rather if relegation will be confirmed. They are 1.011/100 to be playing Championship football next season.

It perhaps seems that Ruud van Nistelrooy wasn't a smart appointment after the sacking of Steve Cooper in November. His record reads P18 W2 D1 L15 F9 A43 picking up just seven points (Southampton still only managed six in the same period). Ten of Leicester's 17 points were achieved under Cooper.

The stats make for grim reading, particularly of late. Leicester have failed to score in their last eight matches, losing all eight, and have conceded at least two goals in 15 of their last 17 matches.

They travel to a Brighton side this weekend who have plenty to play for given they are only six points behind fifth place and Champions League football. Despite their Jekyll and Hyde nature, the Seagulls have won six of their last 11 Premier League games. Therefore with Leicester not scoring and regularly shipping two or more goals, it makes sense to back Brighton to win by two or more goals.

In the reverse game, Brighton were 2-0 up and cruising (Van Nistelrooy's second game in-charge) only to concede two late goals in the last five minutes.

Southampton v Aston Villa (15:00)

Following Southampton's 3-1 defeat to Tottenham last weekend, when Saints' relegation was confirmed, manager Ivan Juric left the club having won just one of 14 matches. It means that first team coach Simon Rusk will be interim manager for the rest of the season, with Adam Lallana as assistant.

Generally, when a manager is appointed, the club enjoys a bounce and results improve short-term. Here technically a 'new manager' hasn't been appointed, so I'm happy to analyse Southampton based on the overall season. They could still be the worst Premier League team ever and their games are generally full of goals because they can't defend.

Aston Villa are between Champions League quarter-final games against PSG but, with as the Villans are only two points off fifth, they will still be focused on winning this game, especially with seven straight wins across all competitions domestically.

There could be an element of rotation in Unai Emery's team selection, but Villa have plenty of options after an excellent January transfer window. And despite their good season, they've still only kept five clean sheets in 23 away games in England and in Europe. That's helped contribute to 68% of their Premier League matches going Over 2.5 goals, which rises to 73% away from home.

A significant 65% of Southampton's games have had three or more goals, which increases to 67% at home. Indeed they may well be able to play with more freedom now the weight of relegation has been been confirmed.

Arsenal v Brentford (17:30)

Despite Liverpool losing 3-2 at Fulham last weekend, Arsenal failed to take advantage the day before with only a 1-1 draw at Everton. It means the Gunners remain 11 points behind Liverpool with only seven games and 21 points to play for. This includes a trip to Anfield in five games time, which would be days after a potential Champions League semi-final second leg.

For this weekend, even after Arsenal's excellent 3-0 first leg win over Real Madrid, we are likely to still expect at least one eye on the return leg next week. Mikel Arteta started none of Saka, Martinelli, Timber, Odegaard nor Partey against Everton and could rotate again here.

Despite their injury issues this season, Arsenal have only lost three games all season and are unbeaten in 20 of their 21 matches. But their lack of firepower has been telling, especially recently, with 12 of their last 18 matches seeing Under 2.5 goals (67%), including six of their last seven.

They've only managed five goals more than this weekends opponents in Brentford but Arsenal possess the best defence in the league with only 26 goals conceded in 31 games. A long season may well be beginning to catch up with the Bees as six of their last 10 have finished Under 2.5 goals and they've scored one goal or fewer in seven of those games. This on top of failing to score in four of six games against the current top four.

The enticing thing here is that the line is actually set at 2.75, so by backing Unders we actually have the security of getting half of our stake back if there is exactly three goals.

Now read more Premier League Saturday Tips here!