Saturday Premier League Tips: Back Forest to avoid defeat, goals at Brighton and Ipswich to rack up the cards

• Forest lost just four times all season

• Brighton always good for goals bets

• Ipswich card heavy on the road

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Betfair Saturday Superboost

Mo Salah and Chris Wood have been in sensational form this season and both have excellent opportunities on Saturday to continue their great form with games against Ipswich and Bournemouth respectively.

Salah averages 1.81 shots on target per 90 minutes this season while Wood averages 1.18 shots on target per 90. They are first and fourth in the Premier League top goalscoring charts and they've registered 56 shots on target between them this term. 

Salah to have one shot on target v Ipswich and Wood to have one shot on target v Bournemouth was originally chalked up at 4/71.57, but the Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted that price to 1/12.00! To take advantage, just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 15:00)

Seventh hosts third in the Premier League yet the home side is 1/12.00. If they were equal in ability we would be looking at Bournemouth being 5/42.25 yet Forest are seven points clear and big underdogs. Forest have lost just four games all season - the third best record in the league. They've suffered only two away defeats all season, and those came against Arsenal and Man City so no shame in those at all.

Bournemouth have actually only won 10 of 22 games (45%) - less than half - yet they are comfortable favourites. They are the third biggest underachievers in the league based on expected goals for - they've scored 36 but have created an xG of 46.27 - an underperformance of -10.27. After 22 games I think we have to accept it's no longer bad luck and/or great goalkeeping but actually poor finishing. And how many great chances will they be able to create against a Forest side possessing the fourth best defence based on expected goals against and third best defence overall?

Speaking of finishing, Forest have the leagues fourth top scorer in Chris Wood who has 14 goals from 9.66xg so is clearly a good finisher and in a game of fine margins, Bournemouth's misses and Wood's clinical scoring, could be the difference. After Tottenham, Bournemouth have the most amount of players missing this weekend with 10. Of those, Evanilson, Enes Unal, Marcus Tavernier and Luis Sinisterra have got 15 goals and assists between them this season which is a huge miss. Given Forest's record, this bet has won in 18 of their 22 games this season (82%).

Brighton v Everton (Saturday, 15:00)

I'm going to back over 2.5 goals here which is only slight favourite, which I'm always happy to do in a Premier League match since the beginning of last season with the additional time, and it being a Brighton game.

This season the Premier League is averaging 3.02 goals per-game which would give us a blanket price of 7/101.70 and last season 3.28 per-game, a blanket price of 8/151.53. Combine the two seasons and we get 3.19 per-game - a blanket price of 4/71.57. The goal expectancy driving the odds here is just 2.75 so you can straight away see why I'm keen.

Under Fabian Hürzeler this season against Premier League opposition, Brighton games have seen 75 goals in 24 games, 3.13 per-game, with 15 of their last 21 going over 2.5 goals (71%). Our sample size for David Moyes at Everton is obviously incredibly small and we shouldn't draw any solid conlusions at this stage. However, it's six goals in his two games so far, versus 40 goals in 19 under Sean Dyche (2.11 per-game). When Moyes was in charge of Everton previously for 11 years, he averaged 2.67 goals per-game which is clearly way above Dyche's average. Brighton are heavy favourites at 4/61.67 and capable of clearing line themselves as shown by winning 3-0 at Goodison Park in the reverse fixture.

Liverpool v Ipswich (Saturday, 15:00)

After last weekends 6-0 hammering at home to Man City, Ipswich continue to find themselves eighteenth and in the remaining relegation spot but only on goal difference, so there is plenty to fight for in the remainder of the season.

And fight is exactly what they are going to do. They've collected the joint third most cards in the division with 57 (55 yellows and two reds) at an average of 2.59 per-game. It should come as no surprise when you consider last season in the Championship, despite finishing second, they collected over 100 yellow cards with only five sides collecting more. Away from home this season they've received 30 cards in just 10 games - an average of 3.0 per-game. This should also come as no surprise as they commit the joint most fouls in the division per-game away from Portman Road (13.3).

The referee here is Michael Salisbury who has already taken charge of one Ipswich game this season at home to Bournemouth where he showed the home side two yellows after just sixteen minutes. Last season he also officiated just one Ipswich game at home to Southampton where he brandished the Tractor Boys three cards.

Therefore backing Ipswich to receive three or more cards looks attractive especially when you consider the odds of 11/82.38. This bet has won in seven of their 10 away games and opposition sides at Anfield have received three or more cards in eight of Liverpool's 10 home games. Combined we're looking at a bet that has won in 15 of 20 matches (75%).

Now read Stephen Tudor's Saturday Premier League bets!