Football Accumulator Tips: Back 5/1 'Match Odds 90' Acca on Saturday

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Leg #1 - Man City to beat Newcastle @ 8/151.53

Manchester City look too strong for Newcastle here. The Magpies have made a promising start to the season with three wins, one draw, and one loss, but their underlying stats suggest they have been fortunate. Despite sitting sixth in the league, they rank 16th on xPts and 15th for non-penalty xG ratio.

Newcastle have lost the xG battle in four of their five games, generating an average of just 0.95 xG while conceding 1.16 xGA. Defensively, they have been vulnerable, allowing the fourth highest shots on target and third highest total shots, with only Brentford conceding more touches in their penalty area.

City have been in incredible form, unbeaten in their last 28 Premier League games, winning 23 and drawing five. Their attacking power is unmatched, scoring 73 goals and averaging 2.61 per game across these fixtures. Though their 13-game winning streak was halted with a 2-2 draw with Arsenal on Sunday, their away form remains formidable with 12 wins and one draw, conceding just one goal in their last six away games. I have them second on xPts and on non-penalty xG ratio this term.

City's relentless attack, led by Erling Haaland, sees them top the Premier League in shots on target (with 7.20) and total shots. This fact, combined with Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities, makes City a good bet to win this weekend.

Leg #2 - Freiburg to beat St Pauli @ 4/71.57

Freiburg are in strong form heading into their match against St Pauli, with an unbeaten record of W3-D1-L0 in their first four games. They have scored two or more goals in three of those matches, with their only defeat coming against Bayern Munich. At home, Freiburg are solid, losing just once last season to teams finishing outside of the top five, with a record of W5-D6-L1.

This season, they rank fifth for xG with an average of 2.13 and are third for the fewest xGA at 0.89. Defensively, only three sides have conceded fewer shots. I have them third for xPts, sitting just behind last season's league winners, Leverkusen, and Bayern Munich.

In contrast, newly promoted St Pauli have struggled, with a record of three defeats and a draw in four games. They have managed only one clean sheet, which came after Leipzig's midweek Champions League fixture.

St Pauli are 14th for xG, averaging just 0.91, and have scored the fewest goals in the league with only one. While their xGA of 1.40 is respectable, the step up to the topflight has been challenging and both promoted clubs have yet to win, with collectively only two points between them from eight games.

Freiburg's superior form and home advantage make them clear favourites to win this weekend.

Leg #3 - Port Vale to beat Swindon @ 5/61.84

Port Vale are well-placed to beat Swindon this weekend after a solid start to the campaign. Both of their two defeats came in unfortunate circumstances, at home to Doncaster, Vale won the xG battle 2.48 vs 2.42, creating more chances and shots on target. Their other loss was away to leaders Barrow, where they conceded four goals despite Barrow generating just 0.75 xG.

Currently fifth on xPts and xGD, Vale have a strong foundation with Darren Moore now in charge and his experience will be key this season. Although relegated from League One last season, the signing of Jayden Stockley has paid off, with him scoring three goals in six games. Defensively, only four sides have conceded fewer shots.

Swindon have struggled this season, with a record of W1-D3-L3 and just two wins from their last 20 away games, conceding an average of 1.95 goals per game. Their only win came at home against Newport, and on the road, they have failed to win, scoring just twice.

Although they secured a 1-1 draw with Barrow, they benefited from playing against a team with an outfield player in goal. Given Swindon's away struggles and Port Vale's strong form, I am happy to back the hosts to win this game.

Leg #4 - Blackpool to beat Burton @ 2/51.40

Blackpool look like strong favourites to beat Burton this weekend, thanks to their resurgence under new manager Steve Bruce. After a poor start to the season, which saw two defeats and the sacking of Neil Critchley, Bruce has turned the tide, guiding Blackpool to three consecutive wins.

The victories over Charlton and Huddersfield were particularly impressive, with Blackpool winning the xG battle 1.33 vs. 0.52 at Huddersfield and riding their luck slightly against Charlton. They currently sit third on xPts over the last four games and fourth overall for the season, suggesting they are trending in the right direction.

At home, Blackpool have been solid, boasting a record of W12-D5-L3 over their last 20 home matches, with nine clean sheets. Their talented squad has the potential to push for a top six finish, and their form under Bruce reflects that.

Burton, by contrast, have struggled this season. Sitting 22nd in the league standings and on xPta, and 20th on non-penalty xG ratio, they have scored just eight goals and conceded the fifth highest number of shots on target. While they remain undefeated on the road, they have yet to win, drawing three games while losing the xG battle in all of them. Their away xG of just 0.81 is concerning, and I have them 24th on xPTS over their last four games.

Burton's overall form, with only two wins in their last 20 League One matches, makes them unlikely to stop Blackpool's momentum here.

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