Saturday Betfair Build Ups: Take on Bruno and Nkunku with Alcaraz and Watkins

• New signing Carlos Alcaraz had three shots on target last week

• Everton man worth backing at 9/52.80 to beat out-of-form Bruno

• Ollie Watkins has scored five in his last seven Premier League games

• Nkunku likely to start and has to be taken on with 13/53.60 Villa striker

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

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Everton v Man United
Saturday 22 February, 12:30
Live on TNT (UK)

Match Ups - Alcaraz to have more shots on target than Fernandes

We opposed Bruno Fernandes in a Match Ups bet last week and he did his part for us, registering zero shots on target against Tottenham, and the plan of attack for United's trip to Goodison Park is to take him on again.

It's a pretty simple plan, but as we know, not all good plans come together as was the case last week when Son Heung-min saw plenty of the ball, had his fair share of shots ag goal, but none were on target so the bet was deemed a loser.

But we're sticking with the plan, and that is to oppose Bruno, especially when he's playing in a poor United team who are woefully out of form, away from home to an in-form opponent, and most crucially, he continues to be deployed in a deeper midfield role.

The United captain has registered just one shot on target in his last three game, basically one shot on target every 100 minutes when you consider stoppage time in each game.

Player vs Player

English Premier League

Charly Alcaraz

Southampton

English Premier League

Bruno Fernandes

Man Utd

Alcaraz Fernandes

Appearances 16 36

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Goals 2 8

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Shots 27 96

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Shots on target 12 29

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Assists 3 10

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Chances created 14 91

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Passes 271 2020

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Fouls 14 32

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Fouls won 12 40

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Yellow cards 4 4

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Red cards 0 2

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And when you look at the stats above, one shot every 100 minutes is probably about his seasonal average given that he's registered just 18 all season in the Premier League from 24 games played.

We're taking him on here with Everton' vibrant new attacking midfielder Carlos Alcaraz, who arrived at Goodison Park just three weeks ago but has already become a fan favourite after last week's full debut performance against Crystal Palace.

Now when we say we've got limited evidence to go on we really mean it. 

Alcaraz has played just 99 minutes of Premier League football for Everton, and just nine minutes for Southampton in August, but from those 108 minutes played he's registered four shots on target, including three at Palace last weekend. That's a shot on target every 27 minutes. Not bad going at all.

He looks almost certain to start against United on the back of last week's performance and we know Bruno always starts. The mystery is, given the stats for each player, the positions they play, and the form of each team, why is Alcaraz 9/52.80 to win this Match Up with Fernandes the 13/82.63 favourite. Let's no worry about that, let's just back the Everton man.

Aston Villa v Chelsea
Saturday 22 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

Match Ups - Watkins to score more goals than Nkunku

We'll keep our second Match Up short and sweet, but it is basically using the same reasoning as we did for the early Premier League kick-off, in that we're taking on a player simply because of how poor his team is performing currently.

That man is Christopher Nkunku who we are confident will start the game given the absence of Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson in the Blues attack.

But the facts are that Nkunku has scored just two Premier League goals this term, and in his last 11 appearances - admittedly a lot from the subs bench - his only goal scored was against Morecambe, who sit 23rd in League Two, in the FA Cup. And with Chelsea arguably putting in their worst performance of the season at Brighton last week - failing to register a single shot on target in a 3-0 defeat - then we have to take him on in a goals Match Up with Villa striker Ollie Watkins.

The Villa striker is in decent form, scoring in five of his last seven appearances, including against Liverpool in midweek, and he's by far and away Villa's most likely man to score should the home side get on the scoresheet. And crucially, he's on penalty duty whereas Nkunku isn't.

On the Betfair Sportsbook you can back Watkins to score anytime at 8/52.60, but in this Match Up you can back him at 13/53.60 to score more goals than Nkunku. We don't fancy the Chelsea man to score, so one goal has a big chance of winning this bet, so forget the Anytime Scorer price, back Watkins to score more goals than Nkunku in a Match Up.

Now read more Premier League previews and tips here